The lockdown is over – and that’s when economic data returns

The dark age of government data is coming to an end, but it may take some time for government statistical agencies to catch up on their usual schedule.

Washington is back to work after a 43-day shutdown, and now the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and other agencies can start catching up. Based on previous government shutdowns, experts believe some long-awaited economic reports will be released within days. Others may take weeks to assemble, and others may never be released at all.

Investors, policymakers and business leaders are particularly concerned to see data on inflation and the labor market, since recent reports have pointed to some warning signs. The latest government reports showed a slowdown in the labor market and high inflation rates. This poses a dilemma for Fed officials who must decide whether to lower borrowing costs to boost employment or keep interest rates higher to fight inflation.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about when data will start flowing, especially given the duration of the lockdown,” Nancy Vanden Houten, chief economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. “Based on previous lockdowns, we expect data scheduled for release in the first half of October – primarily data covering September – to be released very quickly. However, the timeline will vary depending on the normal data collection process for each indicator.”

As of Thursday afternoon, the BLS and other agencies had not yet released revised schedules. Here’s what economists expect:

Labor market September

Economists say the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly job creation report for September soon, as the bureau has already conducted the surveys used to collect the data. The report was originally scheduled to be released on October 3, two days after the lockdown began. Researchers at Goldman Sachs expect the report to be released sometime next week, on November 18 or 19.

Economists expected that employers in the United States would add 50,000 jobs during the month, according to a survey conducted by economists. BloombergUp from 22,000 in August.

Wholesale prices for September

The PPI report, originally scheduled for October 16, may also come out fairly quickly, because the data has already been collected, Vanden Houten wrote. Consensus forecasts call for producer prices to rise 0.3% in September after falling 0.1% in August.

September retail sales

Data on September retail sales, reported by the Census Bureau, will likely be delayed longer, since data collection would have continued until October, when the government shut down, Vanden Houten wrote. This monthly report was also scheduled to be released on October 16. The median forecast called for sales to rise 0.4% during the month, slower than the 0.6% increase in August.

October jobs

The October jobs report could be problematic, since the government was closed when the Bureau of Labor Statistics typically collects data. It’s possible the office will release reports for October and November together in December, Vanden Houten wrote. The jobs report was supposed to be released on November 7.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be able to report October payrolls, which are based on employer surveys. However, a survey that estimates the unemployment rate, which is sent to households, will be more challenging.

“The inability to conduct surveys would be a particular problem for the domestic workers survey,” Vanden Houten wrote.

Inflation in October

Whether or not the October CPI will be released is an open question. Goldman Sachs economists wrote that the data “cannot be estimated in the traditional way for October.”

“We cannot completely rule out the possibility that some October data will not be published at all,” Vanden Houten wrote.

The consumer price index was scheduled for release Thursday, and forecasters expected it to show prices rising 3.1% over the year, the same as the annual increase in September, according to a survey of economists conducted by Dow Jones News.

The White House raised the possibility that the October CPI and jobs reports may never be released, an unprecedented event in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ history dating back to 1913.

November reports

Goldman said the November reports, which are typically released in December, will likely be delayed by at least a week as statistical agencies continue to play catch-up. Another problem is that the prices used to create the CPI may be distorted because the bureau will collect them in late November when holiday sales begin.