The longest government shutdown in America may be days away. Here’s what’s at stake

The government shutdown entered its 30th day on Thursday, worsening its effects on household finances, the economy and policymakers who rely on economic data.

The federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, continues as Democratic and Republican lawmakers remain deadlocked over health care policy. Punters on betting site Polymarket were placing a 30% chance the lockdown would end by November 7, and a 64% chance it would be resolved the following week.

If the impasse is not broken by Tuesday, it will be the longest lockdown in history.

There was at least one sign on Thursday of progress toward ending the stalemate. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune told CNBC on Thursday that there are “a lot of conversations going on now…there were probably two weeks ago” between members of both sides.

Meanwhile, the financial damage continued to pile up on several fronts.

Domestic hardship

The nation’s low-income families braced for a serious financial impact, as the Agriculture Department said it would stop funding the SNAP food assistance program effective Saturday.

The program, although funded by the federal government, is administered by states, some of which may continue to provide benefits to beneficiaries during the shutdown. But at least 25 states have said they will not do so, according to press reports POLITICOThis puts many of the program’s 42 million beneficiaries at risk of losing access to their benefits.

Low-income households rely on SNAP for 90% of food costs, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics. Food banks have warned that cutting off supplies will put millions at risk of hunger.

“For families already experiencing severe stress, this lack of benefits could mean impossible choices between food, rent, medications, utilities, and more,” ARC, a group serving people with disabilities, wrote in a blog post. “People with disabilities already face higher rates of poverty and food insecurity, making them more vulnerable.”

Federal employees who are furloughed or working without pay will also feel the pressure, even if the government eventually pays their back wages when the shutdown ends, as it has in the past. Workers will collectively lose about 1.8 million paychecks as the shutdown continues through November, the bipartisan Policy Center estimates.

Lockdown will hurt the economy

The cessation of salaries and benefits will have an impact on the national economy as well as individuals.

The Congressional Budget Office said this week that gross domestic product, a measure of the country’s economic output, is likely to fall by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter, depending on how long the shutdown lasts.

For reference, the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, so a two percentage point reduction would cut the growth rate in half. The Congressional Budget Office said GDP would offset that loss in the quarter the government reopened, as back pay goes out.

However, some of the losses will be permanent, with the United States losing between $7 billion to $14 billion in economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Dark Age of Data

The closure of government statistical agencies means that economic reports on inflation, the labor market, and other aspects of the economy are delayed, and in some cases may never be published. The second month of reporting is about to be postponed if lawmakers cannot reach an agreement.

A highly anticipated September job creation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for release on October 3, was not published due to the shutdown. The closure will also delay, if not completely cancel, the October report, scheduled for November 7.

Investors, business leaders and Federal Reserve officials were forced to do without data while making key decisions.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to a data blackout this week after the central bank’s policy committee decided to cut interest rates. He said the data blackout could make the Fed more cautious about moving interest rates if the shutdown is not resolved by its next meeting in December.