The price gap between Waymo and Uber is narrowing

A trip in a Waymo robo-taxi still costs more, on average, than a similar trip in a human-driven Uber or Lyft car. But that gap is narrowing, according to new data published by Obi, a company that aggregates real-time fares and pick-up times across many ride-hailing services.

There are two factors working together behind the change. Waymo cut its prices, at least in the San Francisco Bay Area where data was pulled, while rides on the Uber and Lyft networks rose, according to Obi.

The new data was collected between November 27 and January 1, as Obi simulated more than 94,000 ride requests in the Bay Area. The company found that Waymo rides cost an average of $19.69, while Uber rides were slightly cheaper at $17.47. Lyft rides during the same period averaged $15.47.

In June, Obi released its first report analyzing taxi data compared to data for ride-hailing services. The data, taken from trips in April 2025, showed Waymo trips averaged $20.43, Uber fell at $15.58, and Lyft trips tied at $14.44. Compared to these numbers, Waymo’s average cost is down 3.62%, Uber’s is up 12%, and Lyft’s is up 7%.

Ashwini Anburajan, CEO of Obi, told TechCrunch that she thinks this is a trend to watch, because while last April’s data implied that customers were willing to pay a higher price to ride on Waymo, “the novelty is starting to wear off for people in the Bay Area.” This means Waymo will likely continue to price its offerings more competitively, she said.

Substitution: Tesla

The twist on Obi’s new report is that it collected data on Tesla’s burgeoning robotaxi service, which appears to be much cheaper than these three other offerings. But there are a number of important caveats.

For example, Tesla does not technically operate a robotaxi service in the San Francisco area, where the data was sampled. Tesla does not have the necessary permits to operate a commercial driverless robotaxi service in the state. It also does not have the permit of a transportation network company like Uber or Lyft. Instead, Tesla obtained a transportation leasing permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, which means the company uses employees to drive company cars equipped with full self-driving software.

Tesla’s Bay Area fleet is also modest. Data collected from the Robotaxi Tracker website helped register about 168 vehicles in Tesla’s fleet, although not all of these cars are active all the time. (Obi notes in the report that only 156 were observed through the crowdsourcing site at the time the company conducted its data sampling.)

This smaller fleet has been driven by wait times. Of the four services surveyed, Tesla had the longest wait time with an average wait time of 15.32 minutes. Waymo’s average wait time was 5.74 minutes (up from 4.28 minutes last April), while Lyft and Uber came in at 5.14 minutes and 3.15 minutes, respectively.

These inputs — fleet size, human drivers, wait times — can all affect how Tesla prices ride out on the real scale, and it’s difficult to pinpoint when and how that might happen. Tesla recently recalled safety monitoring devices from a few cars in Austin, Texas.

If Tesla can scale its robotic cars — which rely on camera inputs alone — the company should theoretically be able to price lower rides than competitors like Waymo that integrate its self-driving software into modified vehicles equipped with several different types of sensors.

Popularity contest

Anburajan believes there is value in Tesla operating a ride-hailing service, before any attempt to operate true robotaxis.

“It’s not really a self-driving vehicle right now. It has a driver for safety. They’re building brand familiarity. They’re building brand preference for people who already like Tesla cars and people who tend to like Tesla,” she said.

There is some evidence of this in the report Obi released on Tuesday.

In addition to the sampled Bay Area ride requests, Obi surveyed 2,000 people in California, Nevada, Arizona and Texas on a number of issues related to robotaxis and ride-hailing services. More than half of those participants who took a self-driving car said they had taken a Tesla robo-taxi. When asked which independent brand they liked best, participants chose Tesla 31% of the time.

Waymo remains the most preferred, with 39.8% of respondents choosing the Alphabet-owned brand. But this strong preference for Tesla, despite the company not operating a real robotaxi service on any scale yet, points to future demand.

This strong preference for Tesla is also largely driven by one particular group: men. Women surveyed by Obi were essentially evenly split when it came to choosing Waymo or Tesla, with Zoox taking third place at 8%. But 56% of men surveyed preferred Tesla over Waymo (25%) or Zoox (7%).

What’s next?

Obi’s report provides a good baseline ahead of a year that is sure to see many developments in the world of autonomous vehicles. Waymo is rapidly expanding into new cities, even partnering with Uber and Lyft in some. These ride-hailing companies are bringing several autonomous vehicle partners onto their platforms as well. Tesla will likely look to prove the success of its approach to robotics in order to expand its emerging offerings.

Waymo is also about to start offering rides in a new truck-like vehicle it is making with Chinese company Zeekr. This vehicle, known as the Ojai, is expected to have a lower initial cost for Waymo and could allow the company to command more aggressive pricing.

However, one thing is clear to Anburajan: the real competition is coming. Other companies are preparing to launch their own robotics services. Nuro is supplying its self-driving system to modified Lucid Gravity vehicles as part of a premium robotaxi network that will be powered by Uber. Hyundai-backed Motional has relaunched its efforts and plans to launch a commercial robotaxi service in Las Vegas before the end of the year. Other companies like Avride have partnered with Uber to bring robotaxis to other US cities.

“It’s still pretty early in the game, so no one’s late in the game, right?” She said. “We are in this new era, so who is going to capture market share and move quickly to win over consumers?”