The successes of the franchise continue to decline, which affects the box office

Moviegoers will find a wealth of familiar franchises on the big screen this year. That may not be enough to save the box office.

Newcomers from the popular film series are dominating the film slate over the next 12 months. The 2026 schedule includes releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story and Super Mario Bros. Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune, and Jumanji.

Intellectual property such as well-established franchises have long been an important part of Hollywood, but they are becoming increasingly vital in 2026 as the theatrical industry seeks to crack the $10 billion mark at the domestic box office for the first time since the pandemic.

But some big-name segments no longer attract the audiences they used to, and industry insiders worry that the $10 billion benchmark may be out of reach this year for a post-pandemic industry rocked by production shutdowns, major studio consolidations and a shift in consumer viewing toward streaming.

“Relying on franchises has been a little more difficult in the last few years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush. “Yes, there is a level of certainty…but it’s not just a home run. It will never be that way from now on, because people are more selective than they were before. They know what’s coming. Word of mouth means more than ever.”

Since 2010, the 10 highest-grossing films domestically have been mostly franchise films, according to data from comScore. During that period, between eight and ten films released each year were sequels, prequels, or remakes. The only exception was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were based on the franchise, due to the number of films delayed during the Covid lockdown.

Naturally, a number of the original titles that broke into the top ten have themselves become franchises in the past two decades. Look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “Secret Life of Pets,” and “Ted.”

“Studios clearly feel that the comfort of audiences — going to see a movie where they already know, to some extent, what they’re going to get before they walk into the auditorium — is a bet worth making,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.

As studios depended on safe audiences, box office sales became more dependent on the success of these franchise films.

Before the pandemic, from 2010 to 2019, the top 10 films accounted for an average of 30% of the domestic box office total annually. The collection outperformed the 2019 calendar as these films accounted for nearly 40% of annual revenue. All ten films that year were based on the intellectual property, and nine of them grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.

After the pandemic, the average proportion represented by the top 10 films of the annual domestic box office total was 44%.

“I remember having this conversation in the late 1990s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “Box office over the last several decades has been driven by franchise. That’s just the way it is. Why? Because when there’s familiarity with the content, there’s a greater chance that people will show up because there’s an affinity toward a particular franchise and it’s already known.”

Hollywood is now facing the harsh reality of what happens when franchises fail.

Two of the most anticipated films to hit theaters last year were Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney “Avatar: Fire and Ashes” – performed less than expected.

The first “Wicked,” released in 2024, grossed $475 million at the domestic box office and just over $750 million globally during its theatrical run. A year later, the second part of the duology has raised just under $350 million from the United States and Canada and about $525 million globally.

Box office analysts attributed the decline in ticket sales to a drop in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” has a “Fresh” rating of 88% on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” has a rating of 66%.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” had more room to fill. James Cameron’s successful film “Avatar”, which was released in 2009, achieved revenues of $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion internationally. It remains the highest-grossing film of all time at the box office with ticket sales reaching $2.9 billion.

More than a decade later, “Avatar: The Way of Water” hit theaters, grossing $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its total to $2.3 billion.

But when “Fire and Ash” hit theaters in December, consumer demand was not as high, and the appeal of Cameron’s pioneering filming techniques had faded. “Fire and Ash,” which is still in theaters, has grossed just $378.5 million domestically and has topped $1 billion globally as of Sunday.

Part of the problem could be trying to extract too much from any one franchise, Wedbush’s Reese said.

Take Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe, for example. The film franchise has been a box office darling for nearly two decades, but has struggled in the wake of 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame” to produce consistent quality sequels. At the same time, the streaming market has been flooded with dozens of new TV series.

“If you try to stretch it too thin and don’t pay the same level of attention to detail, it won’t work,” Reese said.

There’s also a risk in trying to expand a niche interest into a global success, she said. Do filmmakers stay close to the original intellectual property and play off its base, or do they shoot for a broader audience and attract more attention?

Reese noted Warner Bros. The new Dune franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is a good example of a series threading the needle, landing with fans who already loved the books at the same time as attracting new crowds.

“If it’s a good movie, it will serve that core audience and might attract some newbies and have a broader appeal,” Reiss said. “But, if you try to get that broad appeal and you’re not serving your core fans, they’re going to turn on you. And that’s going to cause big problems, because if they don’t like the movie, everyone’s going to find out about it, and they’re not going to go either, right?”

Since coronavirus lockdowns devastated the film industry in early 2020, the number of films being produced for theatrical release has plummeted.

As studios produce fewer films, they rely more on what they see as safe bets of tried-and-true intellectual property.

In 2024, 94 films were released in more than 2,000 locations, down 20% from the 120 wide releases in 2019. This decline was reflected in box office results, which were down about 23% from the $11.4 billion recorded in 2019.

In 2025, there were 112 films with wide release, down about 6.6% from 2019 levels, but the box office still trailed by more than 20%.

Hollywood analysts point to several factors to explain the continued decline in the domestic box office.

There is a lack of theatrical content, especially films that fall in the mid-budget range – $15 million to $90 million. Most of these films, which tend to be dramas, comedies, romances and thrillers, have moved to streaming, because they are cheaper to make and help fill digital libraries with new content.

At the same time, consumers have become more selective about what they watch, and the home entertainment space has advanced in a way that home technology has made staying on the couch easier.

For this reason, studios and theater owners have begun to “event” their film releases – promoting films as must-sees in premium large-format theaters such as IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen Selling specialty merchandise such as popcorn buckets and beverage bottles as well as limited-time food options; and hosting events associated with a film release such as making a friendship bracelet for the Taylor Swift concert film release.

Often times, the movies that are easiest to promote in this way are those based on well-known franchises.

Last year, when “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” hit theaters, Alamo Drafthouse hosted costume shows, encouraging moviegoers to access period-appropriate attire. The event included a costume contest, drinks and themed food. The theater chain has hosted events similar to screenings of James Bond and Star Wars films, and will also host a screening of the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” film.

And these franchises don’t just appear in movie theaters. Many major film studios also have their own consumer products and experience divisions, which rely on theatrical content to sell not only merchandise but also theme park designs, live events, and even cruise ships.

Franchise fans are hungry for products that celebrate and showcase their favorite characters or movie moments. This can appear in the form of clothing, bedding, kitchen utensils and bumper stickers through to collectibles, luxury watches, electronics and seasonal products such as jewellery.

Disney has built theme park lands, rides and cruise ships based on Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets and Pixar films such as Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc., as well as Disney Animation properties such as Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King and The Little Mermaid.

Comcast Universal has also peppered its theme parks with its own properties — Jurassic Park, Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Dark Universe, and How to Train Your Dragon — along with licensed franchises like the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and Nintendo.

And beloved, well-tended franchises have staying power: The Star Wars franchise hasn’t achieved a new theatrical release since 2019, yet has remained one of the top movie franchises in the cultural zeitgeist, according to Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.

Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.