Toyota, Hyundai, and Chinese companies are expected to be most affected by the Iranian war

DETROIT — toyota motorHyundai Motor and Chinese automakers like Chery face the biggest potential impact for non-domestic automakers from the US-Israel war with Iran, according to an analysis by Bernstein.

These global automakers represent nearly a third of sales in the Middle East, according to the report, led by Toyota at 17%. Hyundai By 10% and Cherry By 5%. In Iran specifically, Bernstein notes that Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and Saipa lead the market, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.

Other Chinese automakers are also expected to be affected, as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. The region will account for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025, Bernstein said, citing Chinese export data.

The Bernstein report notes that although sales in the region have been affected, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and higher oil prices will have ripple effects on the global auto industry.

“Closing the Strait of Hormuz adds 10 to 14 days to transit times,” Eunice Lee, an analyst at Bernstein, said in an investment note on Wednesday, adding that “a prolonged conflict and closure of the Strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries.”

Nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. It is also a “critical corridor” for shipments of vehicles and spare parts to the Middle East, Bernstein noted.

Bernstein said any impact on Japanese automakers “appears limited at the moment, but close monitoring of developments is still required.” He also said, of European automakers, Chrysler and parent Jeep Stellantis “He seems to be getting the most exposure given his public issues.”

“The impact of higher gasoline pump prices has already been felt in the 11% drop in Stellantis stock prices since the close last Friday — making the sharp focus on gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines and the cancellation of its electrification efforts seem particularly ill-timed right now,” Lee wrote.

U.S. crude oil prices on Thursday topped $80 a barrel, and U.S. retail gasoline prices jumped about 27 cents since last week to average $3.25 a gallon, according to motorists group AAA.

Stellantis said this week that it was “closely monitoring developments across the affected countries,” noting that “it is not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”

Toyota, Hyundai and Chery did not immediately respond to requests for comment.