Trump warns of “bad things” if Iran does not make a deal as the US aircraft carrier approaches the region

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran held annual military exercises with Russia on Thursday as a second U.S. aircraft carrier approaches the Middle East, with both the United States and Iran signaling they are ready for war if talks over Tehran’s nuclear program fail.

President Donald Trump said he believes 10 to 15 days is “enough time” for Iran to reach an agreement. But the talks have been deadlocked for years, and Iran has refused to discuss broader US and Israeli demands to scale back its missile program and cut ties with militant groups. The indirect talks held in recent weeks have not achieved significant progress, and it is possible that one or both sides will buy time for final preparations for war.

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Iran’s theocracy is more vulnerable than ever after 12 days of Israeli and US strikes on its nuclear sites and military last year, as well as massive protests in January that were violently suppressed. But it is still capable of striking Israel and US bases in the region, and warned that any attack could lead to a regional war.

Earlier this week, Iran launched a live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes.

Tensions are also rising inside Iran, where mourners hold ceremonies honoring dead protesters 40 days after they were killed by security forces. Some gatherings witnessed anti-government chants despite threats from the authorities.

Trump threatens Iran again

Additional US warship and aircraft movements, with the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, near the mouth of the Mediterranean, does not guarantee a US strike on Iran — but it enhances Trump’s ability to carry out a strike if he chooses to do so.

He has so far refrained from striking Iran after drawing red lines on killings of peaceful protesters and mass executions, while re-engaging in war-stalled nuclear talks in June.

Iran has agreed to draft a written proposal to address US concerns raised during this week’s indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, according to a senior US official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The official said that senior national security officials met on Wednesday to discuss the Iranian file, and were briefed that the “full forces” needed to carry out possible military action were expected to be deployed by mid-March. The official did not provide a timetable for when Iran was expected to provide its written response.

“It’s been proven, over the years, that it’s not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran, and we have to make a meaningful deal. Otherwise, bad things will happen,” Trump said Thursday.

Later, while answering reporters’ questions, Trump said Iran had 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement. “I think this will be enough time,” he said.

Growing international concern

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged his country’s citizens to leave Iran immediately, because “within a few, dozens, or even a few dozen hours, the possibility of evacuation will be unthinkable.” He did not go into details, and it does not appear that the Polish embassy in Tehran is reducing the number of its employees.

The German military said it had transferred a “moderate number of non-mission critical personnel” from a base in northern Iraq due to the current situation in the region and in line with the actions of its partners. She said some troops are still there to help keep the multinational camp in Erbil running, where they are training Iraqi forces.

“This week, another 50 US combat aircraft — F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s — were ordered to the region, complementing the hundreds deployed at bases in Persian Gulf states,” the New York-based Soufan Center wrote. “The deployments reinforce Trump’s threat — which he repeats almost daily — to press ahead with a major air and missile campaign on the regime if the talks fail.”

Iran is conducting a maneuver with Russia

The official Iranian news agency (IRNA) reported that Iranian forces and Russian sailors conducted annual exercises in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean with the aim of “raising the level of operational coordination as well as exchanging military experiences.”

Footage later released by Iran showed members of the elite naval forces of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard on board a ship during training. It is believed that these forces have been used in the past to seize ships in major international waterways.

Iran also issued a missile launch warning to pilots in the area, indicating that it plans to launch anti-ship missiles in the exercises.

Meanwhile, tracking data showed the Ford off the coast of Morocco in the Atlantic Ocean at midday on Wednesday, meaning the carrier could pass through Gibraltar and possibly station itself in the eastern Mediterranean with its supporting guided-missile destroyers.

It will likely take more than a week for a Ford vehicle to arrive off the coast of Iran.

Netanyahu warns Iran

Israel is making its own preparations for possible Iranian missile attacks in response to any American action.

“We are prepared for any scenario,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday, adding that if Iran attacks Israel, “they will face a response they cannot even imagine.”

Netanyahu, who met Trump last week, has long called for tougher US action against Iran, and says any deal should not only end its nuclear program, but limit its missile arsenal and force it to cut ties with militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran has said the current talks should focus only on its nuclear program, and that it has not enriched uranium since US and Israeli strikes last summer. Trump said at the time that the strikes “obliterated” Iranian nuclear sites, but the exact damage was unknown because Tehran blocked international inspectors.

Iran always insists that its nuclear program is peaceful. The United States and others suspect it is ultimately intended to develop weapons. It is widely believed that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, but it has neither confirmed nor denied this.

Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran; Claudia Ciopano in Warsaw, Poland; Geir Molson in Berlin; Aamer Madhani and Michelle Price in Washington contributed to this report.