Trump’s ceasefire plan in the war between Israel and Hamas faces risks as it moves into a new phase

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — With the remains of a hostage remaining in Gaza, the first phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas is nearly complete, after a two-month process that saw delays and finger-pointing.

Now, the major players – including Israel, the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the United States, and a diverse list of international parties – must move to a second phase that is much more complex and could reshape the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan – approved by the UN Security Council – lays out an ambitious vision for ending Hamas’ rule of Gaza. If successful, it would see the rebuilding of a demilitarized Gaza under international supervision, the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, and a potential path toward Palestinian independence.

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But if the agreement falters, Gaza could remain trapped in an unstable stalemate for years to come, with Hamas remaining in control of parts of the Strip, the Israeli army imposing an open-ended occupation, and its population left homeless, unemployed, unable to travel abroad, and dependent on international aid to survive.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and key mediator, said over the weekend that the ceasefire had reached a critical point, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to travel to the White House this month to discuss next steps.

Here’s a closer look at the next phases of the ceasefire and potential pitfalls.

Forces for Gaza

Trump’s plan calls for the formation of an international force — known as the International Stabilization Force — to maintain security and train Palestinian police to one day take over. This force has not yet been formed, and the date of its deployment has not been announced.

Some countries – including Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan and Indonesia – have expressed their willingness to participate. But no firm decisions were taken.

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A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks, said partner countries are holding meetings this month to finalize operations. He expected “boots on the ground” in early 2026.

But there are pitfalls. The force’s command structure and powers remain unknown.

Hamas says it will oppose any attempts by the force to disarm it, and contributing countries may not want to risk clashes in order to withdraw their weapons. At the same time, Israel is reluctant to trust an international body to meet its security needs.

Peace Council

Trump said he would chair an international council to supervise a committee of Palestinian technocrats that manages Gaza’s daily affairs. The council will oversee the reconstruction and open reform process undertaken by the Palestinian Authority, with the aim of allowing the internationally recognized authority to one day rule Gaza.

So far, Trump is the only member of the board to have been formally appointed, although former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s name has been floated as a possibility. Another US official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed deliberations, said council members would be announced in the coming weeks.

The main challenge will be to form a council capable of working with Israel, Hamas, mediators and international aid agencies.

Reconstruction

Trump’s plan calls for an economic development plan to “rebuild and revitalize Gaza,” which suffered widespread destruction during the war and where most of the Strip’s two million residents have been displaced and unemployed.

However, no such plan has been announced. Egypt is expected to host a conference this month for donor countries to pledge reconstruction aid.

The United Nations estimated that the cost of rebuilding Gaza would reach $70 billion. Raising this money will be difficult. What is more difficult is to find a plan that is acceptable to many of the governments involved, as well as their private sector partners.

disarmament

The ceasefire agreement calls on Hamas to surrender all its weapons under the supervision of international monitors. Militants who disarm will be given amnesty and the option to leave Gaza.

However, Hamas, whose ideology is based on armed resistance against Israel, says it will not disarm until Israel ends its occupation of Palestinian territories.

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Basem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told The Associated Press that the movement is open to “freezing or storing” its weapons while a political process takes place, perhaps over many years. It is unclear whether this is enough for Israel.

Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed fighting with Israel, clashes with international forces, and derail progress on the rest of the peace plan.

Palestinian government

The Palestinians are scheduled to form a “technocratic, non-political” committee to manage daily affairs in Gaza, under the supervision of the Peace Council.

The committee members have not been announced, and Israel’s opposition to having any Palestinians with ties to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority on the committee may make their selection more difficult.

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It is also not clear whether the committee will give the Palestinians any real voice in government or whether it will exist only to implement peace council decisions. If the committee is seen as a mere front, it risks not gaining popular support and some figures may refuse to join it.

Israeli withdrawals

Under the ceasefire, Israel must withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip, except for a small buffer zone along the border. Currently, Israel maintains control over just over half of the Gaza Strip.

The plan says further withdrawals will depend on “disarmament criteria, milestones and time frames” that will be negotiated between Israel, the United States, the international force and other “guarantors.”

There are no specific timetables for further withdrawals, and Israel may refuse to withdraw further. Its military commander, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, described the so-called Yellow Line separating the Israeli-controlled part of Gaza from the rest as a “new border” that would serve as a “front line of defense for our communities.”

Palestinian Authority

The plan calls for reforming the Palestinian Authority, which administers the West Bank, and creating conditions for a “credible path” to establishing a Palestinian state.

Palestinian officials met with Blair and American officials, and said they had begun reforms in key areas such as corruption, the education system and payments to the families of prisoners convicted of attacks on Israelis.

Israel rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state and opposes any role for the Authority in Gaza after the war, and may oppose attempts to establish a Palestinian state even if some reforms are made. Without finding a path to statehood, any Palestinian support for the new regime may collapse. The plan also does not provide clear criteria or timetables for the reform process.