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Key takeaways
- Wholesale turkey prices are up about 40% due to bird flu, but retailers are still offering deep discounts on turkeys.
- Despite the rise in turkey prices, overall Thanksgiving meal costs are expected to be 2% to 3% lower than last year, especially for shoppers who choose store brands.
This Thanksgiving, you may have to spend a little more money on a turkey, but you can still buy the rest of your meal on a budget.
A recent analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural industry group, found that wholesale turkey prices increased about 40% from last year due to “broader economic challenges impacting the farm economy” and the resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza and avian pneumonia.
Although wholesale turkey prices are widely expected to rise, analysts at Purdue University note that there is wide variation in in-store turkey prices, with retailers typically offering deep discounts on turkeys to attract Thanksgiving shoppers.
For example, Walmart shoppers can purchase a Thanksgiving dinner package that serves 10 people for less than $40. Among the foods and ingredients listed are dinner rolls, potatoes, fresh cranberries, and buttered turkey, costing just $0.97 per pound. Kroger’s “Fresh Gift Package” provides dinner for 10 people for less than $4.75 per person.
These prices are lower than what the USDA forecast report predicted. This report predicted that a whole frozen chicken would cost 131.5 cents per pound in 2025.
What does this mean for you?
Despite the increase in wholesale turkey prices, shoppers won’t have to break their budget for Thanksgiving dinner this year. To find the best deals, try comparison shopping, select store brands, or buy a package from a big-box retailer like Walmart (WMT) or Kroger (KR).
To save this year, buy store brands
For strategic shoppers, Thanksgiving may be cheaper this year than it was in 2024.
According to the Wells Fargo Thanksgiving Food Report, the cost of the Thanksgiving menu has decreased about 2% to 3% since last year.
“While inflation continues to impact certain categories like beef and dairy products, shoppers who stick to the traditional Thanksgiving menu and shop wisely among national and store brands can unlock meaningful savings,” the report said.
While most shoppers know they choose department stores or generic brands to save, the savings could be even greater this year. The report found that shoppers who choose store-brand ingredients can expect to spend $80 this year, while those who buy name-brand foods will pay $95.
Shoppers can also find savings when purchasing certain side dishes. The cost of private-label dinner rolls has fallen 22% since last year, while prices for fillings, ready-made gravy mixes and fresh cranberries are down 3% to 4%.
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