Ukrainian pressure is increasing as the war in Iran worsens and Russia prepares for a new attack

With US-brokered Ukrainian peace talks stalled due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to try to expand his military gains through new attacks against his neighbour, which could increase pressure on Kiev.

Read more: Zelensky says Ukraine is using drone expertise to help 5 countries against Iran’s attacks

Windfall revenues from rising global oil prices are filling Moscow’s war coffers, and US air defense assets are being rapidly depleted by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising fears that there will be little left available for Ukraine in the fifth year of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Ukraine’s European allies have promised to maintain their unwavering support, but ongoing wrangling over a massive 90 billion euros ($106 billion) EU loan to cover Kiev’s military and economic needs for two years reflects the growing challenges.

The refusal of NATO members to commit naval assets to help restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drawn an angry rebuke from President Donald Trump, highlighting another emerging fault line fraught with potential repercussions for Ukraine.

Read more: The Kremlin says that Trump made a phone call with Putin to discuss the war on Iran

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to attract Washington’s attention by offering its expertise in defending against Iranian “Shahed” drones, and sending more than 200 military experts to the Gulf. However, Trump ignored Zelensky’s offer of assistance, saying the United States did not need Kiev’s help.

With new signs of a rift in Western alliances, Putin and his generals are considering plans for a spring and summer campaign across more than 1,200 kilometers of front line.

Possible new batch from Russia

The Russian military appears to be preparing for a renewed attempt to claim the eastern part of the Donetsk region that remains under Ukrainian control, as well as possible attacks in several other sectors.

Analysts note that Moscow is building reserves and its operations are expected to gain rhythm as spring warmth dries out the terrain.

He watches: Putin seeks to rebuild the Russian army as its invasion of Ukraine continues

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted that Russian forces have intensified their artillery shelling and drone attacks, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.

Ukraine sought to derail the Kremlin’s plans by launching counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, where Russian forces sought to form beachheads with the aim of advancing towards the regional capitals, which are major industrial centers.

Ukraine’s successful retaliation in the Dnipropetrovsk region will likely continue to force Russia “to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel to offensive operations elsewhere” on the front, potentially spoiling an expected Russian offensive, the Institute for the Study of War said in a recent battlefield assessment.

It also indicated that Ukrainian forces have intensified their medium-range strikes against Russian logistics, military equipment and manpower in an attempt to obstruct the expected attack.

Russian war bloggers warn that Moscow would need to significantly bolster its forces to mount any major offensive, which raises challenges for the Kremlin.

Read more: A Russian missile hits an apartment building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, killing at least 10 people

After the highly unpopular “partial mobilization” of some 300,000 reservists early in the war, which prompted hundreds of thousands to flee the country to avoid the draft, the Russian military changed its tactics, relying on volunteers and recruiting foreign fighters attracted by reasonably high wages and other benefits.

Putin said that Russia has about 700,000 soldiers fighting in Ukraine, the same number that Ukraine is reported to have.

‘A slow war of attrition’

After rapid maneuvers by large numbers of tanks and mechanized infantry early in the Russian invasion in 2022, the fighting turned into a war of attrition in which small groups of soldiers fought fierce house-to-house battles in the devastated towns and villages of eastern Ukraine. The ubiquitous drones have restricted the concentration of forces in any major movements.

Russia has also relied on long-range missiles and drones to strike energy facilities and other critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

Analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that over the past year, Russia was able to infiltrate Ukrainian defense positions and undermine them due to the “increasing violence” of Moscow’s attacks and the decline in the strength of forces in Kiev.

He watches: Four years after the Russian invasion, Ukrainians are reeling from the war’s heavy toll

He added: “Russia is likely to be able to maintain its current recruitment rate, despite the heavy casualty rate” inflicted by Ukraine.

As part of preparing for new attacks, Russia has increasingly sought to recruit students into its newly formed drone forces, offering relatively high pay and deploying a safe distance from the front.

“Russia maintains the upper hand in the war against Ukraine,” Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday.

She said US-led talks between Ukraine and Russia “are ongoing. Until such an agreement is reached, Moscow will likely continue to fight a slow war of attrition until it sees that its goals have been achieved.”

Well-established positions

Several rounds of negotiations did not yield any noticeable progress as the parties remained sharply divided on key issues.

Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from four regions that Russia illegally annexed but did not fully control, abandon its attempt to join NATO, significantly reduce its military and drop restrictions on the Russian language and Moscow’s Orthodox Church – demands that Zelensky has rejected.

Read more: The envoys pointed to the lack of progress in settling the differences between Russia and Ukraine

Zelensky called for a ceasefire and security guarantees backed by the United States to prevent another invasion of Moscow and rejected claims of sovereignty over Ukrainian territory.

Kiev’s European allies accuse Moscow of prolonging the talks in the hope of achieving more gains and insist on the need for Europe to be present in the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected their participation, saying: “We do not consider it necessary or appropriate.”

Moscow says it will not allow any European forces to monitor the upcoming ceasefire and will consider them legitimate targets.

Zelensky said he sent a team of negotiators to hold talks in the United States on Saturday, but Peskov said Russia would not join them, adding that the date and location for another round of tripartite negotiations had not yet been determined.

Sam Green, a professor at King’s College London, said in a commentary that Moscow’s strategy was clear — “engage with Washington just enough to prevent Ukraine from getting what it needs to change the balance on the ground, enough to keep the Europeans at bay, but not enough to make real progress.”

Trump targets Zelensky

The United States granted Moscow a temporary exemption from oil sanctions, allowing it to sell Russian crude already at sea, much to the dismay of Kiev and the Europeans.

Read more: The United States eases some sanctions on Russian oil, but crude prices remain high

In addition, Trump viewed Zelensky as an obstacle to peace. “He’s got to get the ball rolling, and he’s got to make a deal,” Trump said of the Ukrainian leader earlier this month.

He said in an interview with NBC News that while Putin was ready to reach an agreement, “it is very difficult to reach an agreement with Zelensky.”

Trump also rejected Zelensky’s proposal to help protect US forces and their allies in the Gulf from Iranian drones. “No, we don’t need their help defending drones,” Trump told Fox News Radio.

Zelensky, who took a more pragmatic public stance with Trump after their contentious meeting at the White House in February 2025, expressed growing concern that the Iran war could harm Ukraine.

He told the BBC this week that he had a “very bad feeling” about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the war in Ukraine, noting that peace negotiations were “continuously postponed” while Russia benefits from higher oil prices and Ukraine may face a shortage of US-made Patriot missiles.