Watch live: Obama rallies with Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Former President Barack Obama is leading rallies Saturday for Democrats vying for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, rallying voters ahead of elections that could signal the national mood 10 months into Donald Trump’s second presidency and a year before midterm elections that could reshape it.

Watch Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s campaign rally in the video player above.

Republicans in those states are also stumbling into the final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s election, but without the national star power.

On the West Coast, California advocates are making a final push before a statewide referendum on whether to redraw the state’s congressional map in favor of Democrats. The effort backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom is part of a national redistricting battle that began when Trump urged GOP-run states to help him maintain a friendly House majority in 2026.

Obama, the Democrat who was succeeded by Trump when he first took office, will make his first appearance Saturday with Democratic Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger in Norfolk. Obama will then travel to New Jersey to attend an evening rally with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mickey Sherrill in Newark. Both events place the nation’s first black president in districts where black voter turnout is key to Democratic victories.

He watches: How Virginia’s governor’s race became a microcosm of national issues

Virginia Republican Winsome Earl Sears, the current lieutenant governor, and New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, also have crowded paths.

Contesting in Virginia ensures the election of the first woman to lead the commonwealth since its founding in 1776. If elected, Earl Sears will be the first black woman to be elected governor of any state.

Democrats need strong black turnout

Virginia Democratic House Speaker Don Scott brushed aside questions about whether Obama was needed to help turn out black voters, who are so important to the Democratic coalition of voters, saying his popularity extended along racial lines.

Scott, Virginia’s first Speaker of the House, said, “Blacks and whites inspire his leadership. They inspire the way he governed himself.”

The swing of Obama’s election campaign underscores how popular the 64-year-old president still enjoys among his party’s base after more than eight years in the White House. However, this highlights Democrats’ lack of top leaders and incumbents, as Republicans hold all the levers of federal power and a cadre of Democratic governors and lawmakers vie for their place as national figures.

Scott’s protests aside, the visit highlights the pressures on Democrats to maximize their diverse coalition after Trump in 2024 eliminated Democrats’ usual advantages among Black and Hispanic voters. Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey but narrowed the margins in both states after his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden. Republicans believe New Jersey, in particular, is poised to continue that trend for Schiatarelli.

Trump is not on site but in the conversation

Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and said — without naming Earl Sears — that he supports the GOP nominee for governor of Virginia. The President conducted a rally call for Ciattarelli. He has not personally campaigned for either candidate, although he has traveled several times in recent months to his golf resort in New Jersey.

This reflects the tightrope Republicans have to walk: Trump remains very popular among more conservative voters, but his position is more precarious among the rest of the electorate.

Spanberger and Sherrill tried to take advantage of this.

“Jack wouldn’t say a single bad word about the president,” Sherrill charged in a debate with Ciattarelli.

“No matter who sits in the White House, my job is to stand up for the 9.3 million citizens of the state, and I will do that,” Ciattarelli responded. Then he focused on his relations with Trump. “It’s better to have a relationship with whoever occupies the White House,” he said.

Earl Sears has sided with the president, and according to AdImpact data, Spanberger’s largest ad investment has gone to sites trying to link Earl Sears to Trump.

The lieutenant governor will lead GOP turnout rallies on Saturday in small, Republican-rich towns, first in Abingdon in the southwestern corner of Virginia, then in Purchaseville, in the far north of the state near the Pennsylvania border.

Ciattarelli stops in Woodbridge, Westfield and Fairfield, an itinerary that places him in the Newark suburbs, then across the state in a less populated, more Republican area.

Economy and shutdown cast a shadow over governor’s races

Spanberger and Sherrill, both center-left Democrats who helped the party reclaim the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term, have emphasized the economic arguments.

They have pledged to address rising consumer costs and have criticized Trump for failing to lower prices as he promised in the 2024 campaign. But in New Jersey, Chiattarelli blamed Democrats for rising energy costs because outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy had led the state for two terms.

He watches: A look at the New Jersey governor’s race and its national implications

Democratic candidates criticized Republican federal domestic policy and the tax cut bill. In Virginia, Spanberger highlighted Trump’s management of government efficiency and, to a lesser extent, the ongoing federal shutdown — both of which have a disproportionate impact in a state with more than 300,000 federal employees, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Earl Sears tried to pin the closure on Spanberger, saying the former congresswoman should use her influence with Democratic senators in Virginia. Both senators voted against the GOP’s spending extension bill as Democrats demand Republicans address looming health care cuts.

In addition, contests can provide some evidence about whether social issues carry less weight with voters than in previous elections. Spanberger and Sherrill herald their support for abortion rights, and Spanberger did so in the last Southern state to make the procedure widely available. Earl Sears is taking issue with the focus on transgender politics, and is trying to paint Spanberger as out of step with mainstream voters in the same way Trump used the issue against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.

California will have an immediate impact in the medium term

While results in Virginia and New Jersey will be merely guideposts for the 2026 midterm elections, California is expected to have the most immediate impact on the national landscape.

Voters there are deciding whether to bypass a nonpartisan redistricting commission and approve a new congressional map aimed at sending five more Democrats to Washington.

It is a direct response to the neutering of the already approved Texas plan, which was designed to tilt five seats in that state in favor of the Republican column. More states followed suit, putting the national map itself in flux in an unprecedented mid-decade scramble after years of the usual post-census redistricting process.

Republicans started the current Congress with a lead of just 220-215 in the House. That means just a few seats could determine whether Trump will have full GOP control in Washington for the duration of his presidency or whether he will face a new Democratic majority that, if formed after his first term, will stymie his agenda, open an investigation into his administration and consider articles of impeachment.