What are the rules of the World Baseball Classic? Consider Qatar Foundation qualification scenarios in the USA, Mexico and Italy

Team USA lost its first game in the 2026 World Baseball Classic with an 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday. The result complicates the qualification of the team led by Aaron Goeges to the quarter-finals.

Italy (3-0), the only undefeated team in Group B, will face Mexico (2-1) in the final group match on Wednesday. A win for Italy would take them to the quarterfinals as group winners and Team USA as the second best team in the group.

However, a win for Mexico would put the teams in a three-way tie to qualify for the quarter-finals. In the event of a tie, a World Baseball Classic tiebreaker will decide the team’s future in the tournament. There are five ways to decide the tiebreaker in this year’s tournament.

1. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record: USA beats Mexico, Italy beats USA, and if Mexico beats Italy, each team is tied 1-1.

2. Number of Runs Allowed Per Defensive Out: This rule will take the least number of runs allowed divided by the number of hits scored.

3. Number of earned runs allowed per defensive attack.

4. The highest batting average in matches between tied teams.

5. Drawing lots

While Italy’s date is in its hands for now, Team USA will have to wait for the outcome of Wednesday’s match between Italy and Mexico to find its place in the tournament.

Team USA suffered a stunning loss to Italy with a WBC quarterfinal spot on the line

Italy’s stunning win over Team USA came on the heels of some stark roster decisions from manager Mark DeRosa. Veteran slugger Paul Goldschmidt took on two-time MVP Bryce Harper, while the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Will Smith took on Seattle Mariners outfielder Cal Raleigh, who had started the previous three WBC games.

Ernie Clement was at second base with Gunnar Henderson replacing Alex Bregman at third base, placing him on the bench. Team USA’s Nolan McClain had three runs in three innings after home runs from Kyle Till and Sam Antonacci.

Team USA trailed 8-0 in the game after its star-studded batting lineup failed to score a hit until six runs. Despite the late return, it was not enough to compensate for the large deficit.