What Buffett’s quiet moves say about the future of stocks

Buffett has been mostly quiet in 2025, but the few moves he has made have been significant. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. continued. (BRK.A, BRK.B) added its massive funds to its cash hoard and treasury bills, and trimmed its position in Apple Inc. (AAPL), and quietly bought shares in sectors with pockets of value, including health insurers, homebuilders and steel.

Let’s read together. It’s classic Buffett: sit tight when the market looks frothy, but buy aggressively when short-term fear creates trades.

When valuations are rich, it pays to wait

Buffett has been very vocal about his cash-heavy position since the beginning of the year, but his 2025 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveal a more pronounced tilt toward cash, as Berkshire’s war chest has grown to a record $340 billion, holding more Treasury bills than the Fed.

Investors don’t see big gains by holding cash and cash-like instruments like short-term Treasury bills, so why should they? At today’s short-term rates, Berkshire earns low-risk real returns while it waits for better stock market valuations. For individual investors, the point is simple: when markets look expensive, being patient and giving yourself the ability to go out and buy bargain assets is not a sin – it is a smart strategy.

Related data point: Berkshire stopped buying back its own stock. Stock buybacks have mostly stopped after May 2024 — the longest dry spell since Buffett was granted expanded buyback authority in 2018 — likely because Buffett doesn’t see compelling value in the company’s own stock.

If the world’s most patient investor doesn’t buy his own shares, trades will be rare. For you, this is a reminder not to force trades just to stay active, but rather wait for prices to come to you.

Trim the winners while finding the value

Buffett has trimmed his holdings in AAPL again this year, giving up about 20 million shares, though it remains Berkshire’s largest single holding. For individual investors, the message is not just to dump technology stocks, but to be mindful of focusing too much or holding on to assets that may have unrealistic prices relative to their value.

Meanwhile, Berkshire acquired a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) revealed its holdings in cyclical sectors such as homebuilding – Lennar Corp. (LEN), and DR Horton Inc. (DHI) – and steel, such as Nucor Inc. (NUE).

The UnitedHealth deal is revealing: The health insurer is grappling with changes in Washington, rising inflation in health care costs, and investigations — precisely the kind of bad news that can temporarily spell trouble for a powerful company.

Buffett’s bet indicates that he sees a solid moat – his word for a company with long-term competitive advantages – trading at a discount. The lesson here is to look for high-quality companies with strong business models that are unfairly penalized by the market.

Buffett still invests heavily in real assets

Buffett’s “elephant gun” doesn’t get fired often, but 2025 saw a notable blowout: Berkshire’s agreement to buy Occidental Petroleum’s OxyChem petrochemical business for about $9.7 billion, the company’s biggest deal since 2022.

The company already owns about 28% of Occidental stock (including preferred stock and warrants), and the move reminds us that when Buffett swings out of bounds, he goes after real assets that generate cash, have size, pricing power, and repositioning catalysts.

Occidental’s move also serves as a reminder that Buffett doesn’t always send his plays. The SEC allows large investors to temporarily keep certain stock purchases secret to prevent copycats from raising prices while they are still building a position — Berkshire used this same strategy when it unveiled a large stake in Chubb in 2024, for example.

2025 for Buffett has been mostly quiet, but the moves he made speak loudly enough. It signals caution with record cash levels and minimal buybacks, suggesting valuations look rich. But it’s also selectively eye-catching: buying high-quality companies temporarily beaten down by fear, and making a massive bet on real assets with the Occidental deal.

The lesson for investors is that it often pays to move slowly, avoid paying attention when building positions, and only make noise when the fundamentals align. Regular investors can’t demand secrecy from the SEC, but they can adopt a similar approach: build their positions slowly, ignore the noise, and strike when the fundamentals align.

For you, the takeaway is clear and straightforward: avoid FOMO in a high-value market, cut back on expensive winners, and look for companies with strong moats that are currently on sale. The next big opportunity will come, and when it does, like Buffett, you’ll need a dry powder ready.