What do you know about the deal to end the Iranian war?

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Iran and the United States are touting their tentative agreement aimed at ending their war as a victory. But so far no word on what’s actually in it.

The memorandum of understanding, brokered mainly by Pakistan, begins with the simultaneous lifting of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Pakistani officials. The two sides will then begin 60 days of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and the potential lifting of sanctions, they told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because the text remains classified.

That would leave the adversaries where they were roughly three and a half months ago — before Israel and the United States launched their war on Iran on February 28, which left thousands dead across the region, sparked a global energy crisis and rocked the U.S. economy with soaring inflation.

Much remains unknown, including whether the agreement stipulates anything about Iran’s missile program or support for its regional allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, issues that the United States and Israel have cited to justify the war. The other key question is how to deal with Lebanon: Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the deal, and fighting between them could torpedo this arrangement.

Here’s what you should know:

The agreement would get oil flowing again

US President Donald Trump said that once the agreement is signed – expected on Friday – the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the United States will lift its blockade. This announcement led to a drop in oil prices and a rise in stock markets. Trump said Iran would not impose fees on the passage of ships – a request made by Tehran – suggesting that the agreement restores the status quo that existed before the war.

He watches: Trump expects “great things” from the Iran agreement during his meeting with Macron at the G7 summit

Iran’s closure of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies must pass to reach markets, has proven its most powerful weapon. This has driven up fuel prices, made food and other essentials such as fertilizer more expensive outside the region, and helped push US inflation to as high as 4% ahead of midterm elections later this year.

The US blockade, imposed after an initial ceasefire was reached on April 7, has cut off the billions Iran has earned from oil exports and further paralyzed an economy hard-hit by the war.

Iran and the United States return to negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that the 60-day period of negotiations could be extended if progress is made. What is not known is whether the new agreement brings the two sides closer than they were months ago, when the United States and Israel launched their surprise attack on Iran.

The United States and Israel fear that the Iranian nuclear program will lead to the production of a nuclear weapon, which is the main reason that prompted the war. Tehran insists that its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes.

Central to US demands is the removal or dilution of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. Iran has in the past resisted US conditions regarding its stockpile, and the key question now is whether the text of the agreement explicitly requires Iran to dispose of the stockpile. Iran developed the stockpile after Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 agreement that placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions and the freezing of billions of dollars in assets, which are vital steps to revive its economy. Pakistani officials said that the agreement sets out a phased process for easing sanctions and releasing frozen assets, and this is linked to progress in the talks.

Much remains unknown

The Trump administration has said its goals in the war are to “eliminate” Iran’s missile arsenal and “cut off support” for its proxies across the region, as well as “destroy its naval forces” and ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.

The seven weeks of US-Israeli bombing are believed to have severely damaged Iran’s missile arsenal and production facilities as well as other parts of its military. The extent of these attacks is not known, and Iran has continued to launch missiles and carry out drone strikes. A few analysts believe that Iran cannot rebuild its capabilities.

Iran’s relations with its allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq – appear as strong as ever. There was no indication that the deal addresses the missile program or support for proxies, although the final text when it emerges could show otherwise.

The air campaign also caused severe damage to the Iranian economy. However, the Iranian leadership emerged from the war seemingly emboldened.

It has survived the most dangerous attempt ever by Israel and the United States to overthrow the Islamic Republic, with their thunderous salvos of war claiming the lives of Iran’s Supreme Leader and many senior political and military officials.

Iran demonstrated its ability to retaliate against the global economy by closing the Strait and striking the United States’ Arab allies in the Gulf. The effectiveness of that weapon strengthened Iran’s confidence that Trump would not return to the military option.

The war in Lebanon may threaten the agreement

A woman stands with her children next to piles of rubble from destroyed buildings in Deir Qanun al-Nahr in Tire district in southern Lebanon on Monday. Photography by Aziz Taher – Reuters

The potential obstacle to the agreement is Lebanon, where any downward spiral in the conflict would likely drag Iran in.

Iran insists that any agreement must also include a ceasefire in Lebanon. After the announcement of the agreement, the first Israeli response came from its Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz, who said that Israel would not withdraw from the large area in southern Lebanon that it had seized during the past months.

In a statement, Hezbollah praised the agreement and said it was committed to resisting Israel “until complete withdrawal is achieved.”

But a US official said that the agreement did not call for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and that Israel had the right to respond to Hezbollah attacks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the broad outlines of the agreement.

Netanyahu has been weakened in Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted of unprecedented “shoulder-to-shoulder” cooperation with the United States at the start of the war, which was launched in a joint operation between the two close allies.

But since then, Trump and Netanyahu have been at loggerheads — with the president eager to end the war, deeply unpopular with the American public, and Netanyahu wanting to move forward to achieve his more ambitious goals. On Monday, Netanyahu said that the agreement between the US and Iran was Trump’s decision and that Israel has its own interests, primarily making sure that Israel does not face a nuclear threat from Iran.

Netanyahu was largely sidelined during the ceasefire talks and appears to have lost support among members of the Republican Party. The emerging ceasefire was also subject to severe criticism in Israel, both from opposition leaders and even members of the ruling coalition.

That could bode poorly for the veteran Israeli leader, who faces re-election this fall.

Keith reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Joseph Federman in Jerusalem, Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Michelle L. Price and Will Weissert in Washington.