What is the inflation rate in October? We may never know

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely skip a month of data collection for the Consumer Price Index for the first time in its history due to the ongoing government shutdown.

The White House said Friday that the Consumer Price Index, a widely watched measure of inflation, is unlikely to be released for October. The CPI is based on prices compiled by an army of surveyors, who are currently on furlough and not working due to the government shutdown.

“Because surveyors cannot deploy in the field, the White House has learned that it is unlikely that there will be an inflation announcement next month for the first time in history, depriving policymakers and markets of critical data and risking economic disaster,” the White House said in a statement.

If October data collection is skipped, it will create a noticeable gap in a data set that spans more than a century. The Bureau of Labor Statistics first published data for the national consumer price index in 1921, including estimates of the national inflation rate dating back to 1913.

The CPI report is one of many economic data that was not released as government statistical agencies remained closed. Republican and Democratic lawmakers voted against each other’s bills to fund the government amid a dispute over health care policy. The White House statement deepened fears among economists that the government will have to skip several monthly economic reports scheduled for release in October.

The ongoing data opacity is especially problematic for officials at the Federal Reserve who set the country’s monetary policy with the goal of keeping employment rates high and inflation low. Although private companies, universities and other groups produce their own measures of the health of the economy, the federal government’s statistics, based on large-scale surveys, are considered by economists to be the most comprehensive and reliable.

The White House announcement came shortly after the BLS released its September CPI report, which showed price increases accelerating less than forecasters expected, though remaining well above the Fed’s target of a 2% annual rate. The BLS brought back some employees during the shutdown to publish the September Consumer Price Index report as it is used to calculate Social Security’s annual cost of living adjustments to benefits.