What the election results indicate for next year’s midterm elections

Election night witnessed resounding victories for Democrats in several states. But how did the winning coalition come together? Amna Nawaz dives deeper into the results with Amy Walter from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, as we discussed, last night saw resounding Democratic victories in several states. But how did the winning coalition come together?

To dive deeper into the findings, I’m now joined by Amy Walter of The Cook Policy Report with Amy Walter.

It’s good to see you.

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

Welcome.

Amna Nawaz:

Let’s get started. Let’s start with Virginia, first.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

There we saw Democrat Abigail Spanberger get more than 57 percent of the votes to win over the Republican who got about 43 percent, a similar margin of victory in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill got more than 56 percent of the votes.

So let’s start with the elephant in the room, shall we?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

What do President Trump and his policies have to do with these victories?

Amy Walter:

There is no doubt that he was a central factor in these matters. These aren’t federal races, are they? These are the ruling races. However, when you look at the margins of these two candidates, they essentially match Trump’s rejection rate in the state.

So, for example, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, won her race by 14 points, and Donald Trump’s disapproval rating in the state was basically -14. In other words, what the Republican nominee got in that race was an identical vote – I’m sorry – an identical vote to Trump’s approval rating there.

So what we also see is that voters in general may not have necessarily been unhappy with what was happening in their state. This was true in Virginia, where they believed Virginia was largely on the right track. They felt good about the Republican governor, but they thought things in the country were going off the right track.

I think 80% of voters in Virginia said they think things in the country are on the wrong track, and it’s close to that in New Jersey. And independent voters, who we know are traditionally swing voters, moved overwhelmingly for both Democrats in these two races.

Again, I would argue that it’s more about how those voters feel about Donald Trump than it is about what’s happening in those specific states.

Amna Nawaz:

I know you and I have also talked a lot over the past year or so about how much progress President Trump has made with minorities to secure his recent victory.

Amy Walter:

This is correct.

Amna Nawaz:

What did we see regarding that last night?

Amy Walter:

Well, you can see in a state like New Jersey, in 2024, President Trump made very large gains in that state, winning 43 percent of the Latino vote.

In this election, those gains actually evaporated, as the Republican received 31% of the Latino vote. We saw in Virginia, for example, in the most Hispanic-dense area of ​​the state, the Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, improved on the Harris margin with those voters by 20 points, and she also did 20 points better in Latino areas. Now – from what Harris did.

Now, I talked to a Democratic strategist today who works closely with Latino voters who said, stop this, Democrats who think this means everything is fixed, everything is solved, and that Republican gains with Latinos will go back to what they were before Trump took office.

His argument is that this was a good night for Democrats, but that doesn’t mean the Republican movement among Latino voters is on the wane.

Amna Nawaz:

So, in the minute or so we have left, what does the big picture mean?

Amy Walter:

I know.

Amna Nawaz:

What can we take away from last night in terms of looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections?

Amy Walter:

Yeah, you said the other night on Politics Monday that this is kind of a reset. We basically have to step away from 2024 and look forward now to what the political environment looks like in 2025 and going forward to the 2026 election.

Combine what happened in those New Jersey-Virginia races with other races in more purple states, like Georgia and Pennsylvania, where Democrats had really good nights in some local, statewide races.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Combine that with the special election, where Democratic candidates lead Kamala Harris by 15 points on average, adding up to a very difficult political environment for Republicans going into 2026, one that is much better for Democrats.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, it’s always great to help us make sense of everything.

Amy Walter:

Thank you very much, Amna.

Amna Nawaz:

Thank you very much.