What to expect in North Carolina’s midterm primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — North Carolina voters will narrow the field of candidates Tuesday in a competitive U.S. Senate race that could decide control of the closely divided chamber in November. The ballot also includes contested primaries for the U.S. House, Senate, state House of Representatives and state Court of Appeals.

Even before Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced his retirement last June, North Carolina offered Democrats one of the few opportunities to flip a Republican-controlled seat in a tough electoral map. Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, and Democrats need to win four seats to regain the chamber.

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About a dozen candidates – six Republicans and six Democrats – are competing to succeed Tillis. The winners will face off Tuesday in the November general election.

The most prominent name in the Republican arena is Michael Whatley, the former Chairman of the Republican National Committee who has the support of President Donald Trump. Also running are author and attorney Don Brown and conservative activist Michelle Morrow, both of whom are running for other offices in 2024. Brown sought the Republican nomination in the 8th Congressional District, while Morrow ran in a competitive race for superintendent of public instruction. Former GOP candidate Margot Dupree will appear on the ballot, but the state Board of Elections has disqualified her candidacy.

Read more: Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper announces his candidacy for Senate in North Carolina

In the Democratic primary, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper faces five other candidates. Both Whatley and Cooper have outdone their primary rivals.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley speaks as President Donald Trump visits Fort Bragg, North Carolina, on February 13, 2026. Photo by Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Congressional primaries will be held on a new map — the state Legislature drew new district boundaries in 2025 as part of Trump’s push to gain House seats through mid-decade redistricting. In the 1st Congressional District, which was redrawn in favor of the Republican Party, five Republicans are vying to challenge Democratic US Representative Don Davis. Lori Buckhout, who narrowly lost to Davis in 2024, will run again and face Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Ross, and attorney Ashley Nicole Russell in the primary.

Read more: Judges are allowing North Carolina to use a redrawn map in an effort to give Republicans another seat in the U.S. House of Representatives

In the heavily Democratic Raleigh-Durham 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Valerie Fauci faces a primary rematch with Durham County Commissioner Nidaa Alam, who finished second behind Fauci in a crowded 2022 Democratic field that included former American Idol star Clay Aiken. Allam has the support of Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont.

Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home to Raleigh and Charlotte, respectively, have the highest populations in the state and tend to contribute the most votes in the Democratic and Republican primaries. Guilford, the third-largest county with about half the population of Wake or Mecklenburg, also plays an important role, although it usually takes a backseat to Durham County in Democratic primaries, while Forsyth County tends to be a bigger player in Republican primaries.

Trump’s endorsement should be a boon for Whatley in a state where the then-former president won every county in the 2024 primary against former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Meanwhile, Cooper won every county in his 2020 primary re-election bid and all but five small counties in the 2016 primary.

In the 4th Congressional District race, challenger Allam won Durham County — the region’s largest — in the 2022 primary against Fauci, while Fauci prevailed in Orange County and won by wide margins in the district’s four smaller counties. The newly redrawn 4th District still includes Durham and Orange, but picks up parts of Wake and Chatham counties, while losing the four smaller counties where Fauci did better. If Allam and Fushi split Durham and Orange by a similar margin as in 2022, the result at Wake could be decisive.

Read more: What to expect in the Texas primaries

The Associated Press does not provide projections, and will declare a winner only when it is determined that no scenario exists that would allow the trailing candidate to close the gap. If the race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or announcements of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet announced a winner and explain why.

In the North Carolina primary, the second-place candidate may request a runoff election if the top vote-getter received 30% or fewer of the vote.

There are no automatic recounts in North Carolina, but candidates can request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote or 10,000 votes for statewide races or 1% for out-of-state races. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is so large that a recount or legal challenge cannot change the outcome.

Here are some basic facts about the election and data points that AP’s decision-making office will be monitoring as the votes are counted:

When do the polls close?

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will present the voting results and announce the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, state Senate, state House and state Court of Appeals.

Who is entitled to vote?

Registered party members may only vote in their party’s primaries. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in the Republican primary, or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in any of the primaries.

What does turnout and advance voting look like?

As of February 21, there were about 7.7 million registered voters in North Carolina. Registered Republicans slightly outnumber registered Democrats, with both parties having about 2.3 million registered voters each. More than 3 million voters are not registered with any party.

In the 2022 US Senate primaries, approximately 765,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary, and approximately 619,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary. About 37% of Republican primary votes and about 46% of Democratic primary votes were cast before primary day.

In this year’s election, nearly 417,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 295,000 Republican primary ballots have already been cast as of Monday morning.

How long does the vote counting process usually take?

In the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries, the AP first announced results at about 7:50 p.m. ET, or about 20 minutes after polls closed. Tonight’s voting was last updated at 12:25 a.m. ET with more than 99% of the total votes counted.

When are early and absentee ballots issued?

Most North Carolina counties post all or almost all results from mail and early voting in their first voting updates at night, before publishing any in-person results on Election Day.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 245 days until the 2026 midterm elections.