What to expect in the Illinois primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Illinois’ multiple political realities will converge on Tuesday when the state holds a primary shaped by comeback bids, the retirement of longtime incumbents and the looming 2028 presidential campaign.

Voters will choose candidates for a full slate of offices, including governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, state Legislature and local offices.

He is leading the race to succeed Democratic US Senator Dick Durbin, who is retiring after five terms. Among the Democrats running there are US Representatives Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamurthy, and Governor Juliana Stratton, who has the support of Democratic Governor JB Pritzker. The Republican field includes former state GOP Chairman Don Tracy and attorney Jenny Evans.

Krishnamurthy had outperformed both areas in fundraising at the end of last February, when he had about $6.6 million in the bank after transferring more than $19 million from his campaign account for the US House of Representatives. Tracy was the top fundraiser among Republicans, with about $1.8 million in the bank.

Unlike the state’s other U.S. Senate seat, which recently ended a streak of five consecutive incumbents serving one term or less, Durbin’s seat has had much less turnover. Durbin took office in 1997 and is the second person to hold the position in more than 40 years.

Read more: AIPAC faces a test of its strength in the Illinois primary, as Democrats debate the future of the relationship with Israel

In the race for governor, Pritzker is unopposed in his bid for renomination. President Donald Trump’s return to office in 2025 has increased Pritzker’s national profile, and the two-term incumbent governor is now among a handful of Democrats dominating speculation about the 2028 Democratic presidential race.

In the Republican primary, four candidates are looking to thwart Pritzker’s re-election bid in November, including former state Sen. Darren Bailey, who lost to Pritzker in the 2022 governor’s race.

The state’s largest counties tend to play a decisive role in both Democratic and Republican primaries, with Cook County in Chicago taking the biggest prize of all. In the Senate race, eight of the 10 Democrats running are from Chicago or its nearby suburbs in Cook County, potentially weakening any hometown advantage in the district.

Winners of statewide Democratic primaries typically have an advantage heading into November, considering that Democrats won the last major statewide general election by more than 55% of the vote.

In the U.S. House primaries, the Senate nominations of Kelly and Krishnamurthy and the retirements of Democratic Reps. Danny Davis and Jan Schakowsky have drawn crowded fields of candidates vying to replace them.

Among the hopefuls are two former Democrats who are returning to political life. In the 2nd Congressional District, Jesse Jackson Jr. is running to replace Kelly, who replaced Jackson in 2013 after his conviction in a campaign fraud case. He is the son of civil rights leader Rev. Jesse Jackson, who died on February 17. His primary opponents include Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller and state Sens. Robert Peters and Willie Preston.

In the Democratic primary for the 8th Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean is running to replace Krishnamurthy in a field that includes Neil Khot, Junaid Ahmed, and Dan Tully. Durbin’s choice in the race is his former assistant Yasmin Bankoli.

The Associated Press does not provide projections, and will declare a winner only when it is determined that no scenario exists that would allow the trailing candidate to close the gap. If the race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or announcements of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet announced a winner and explain why.

Illinois does not have an automatic recount law. Candidates who receive at least 95% of the votes for the first-place candidate may request and pay for a limited recount, but the results of the recount are not binding and will not change the outcome of the election. The court may also order a recount as part of an election contest case. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is so large that a recount or legal challenge cannot change the outcome.

Here are some key facts about the election and data points that AP’s decision-making team will be monitoring as the votes are counted:

When do the polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. Eastern time.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will report voting results and announce winners in the contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, governor, secretary of state, comptroller, state Senate and state Assembly, as well as some local races in Cook, DuPage, Kane and Will counties. Some additional statewide offices, such as state attorney general and treasurer, will also be on the ballot, but the races are uncontested, except for a write-in option.

Who is entitled to vote?

Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary election. Illinois allows voters to register on Election Day.

What does turnout and advance voting look like?

As of Friday, there were about 8,976,000 registered voters in Illinois. The state does not register voters by party.

About 857,000 votes were cast in the 2022 Democratic primaries for the US Senate, and about 715,000 votes were cast in the Republican primaries. Nearly 33% of the total votes were cast before Primary Election Day.

More than 535,000 votes have already been cast in the primary as of Friday.

How long does the vote counting process usually take?

In the 2024 presidential primary, the AP first announced results in Illinois at 8:09 p.m. ET, or nine minutes after polls closed. Voting was last updated that night at 2:11 a.m. ET, with about 92% of the total votes counted.

When are early and absentee ballots issued?

While a few Illinois counties may release early voting and absentee voting results at the beginning of the night, the bulk of counties combine them with Election Day results overnight or release them at the end of the tabulation process.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 231 days until the 2026 midterm elections.