What to expect in the special runoff election for Texas’ 18th Congressional District

WASHINGTON (AP) — Houston voters who have gone nearly a year without representation in the U.S. House of Representatives will finally hold the seat in a special runoff on Saturday. Meanwhile, voters in the Fort Worth area will elect a new state senator.

Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards were among the top vote-getters in the Nov. 4 special election to replace Sylvester Turner, a Democratic congressman who died two months into his term on March 5, 2025. No one in the special election field of 16 candidates received the majority of votes needed to avoid a runoff.

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With only two Democrats on the ballot, the party is guaranteed to narrow the slim Republican majority in the House, at least temporarily. There are three other vacant congressional seats in California, Georgia and New Jersey.

However, the winner will only represent the district briefly, because Texas uses different district lines in the November midterm elections. The lines passed by the Legislature in the summer were drawn to be more favorable to Republicans. The current 18th Congressional District, centered around Houston and all in Harris County in southeast Texas, will be divided between approximately six districts. The largest share of the population in the current district will become part of the new 29th district. The new 18th District will include part of Harris County and extend into Fort Bend County.

Today the 18th District is a Democratic stronghold in a majority Republican state. Both Turner and Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, carried the district with about 69% of the vote in their races.

Minifie edged Edwards in last year’s special election 29% to 26%. State Rep. Jolanda Jones, who placed third in November with 19% of the vote, has endorsed Edwards. The other four Democratic contenders received 9% of the vote. Five Republican candidates collectively received about 15% of the vote. The remaining 2% was divided between independent and third-party candidates.

Former U.S. Rep. Erica Lee endorsed Carter-Menefee. Lee Carter is the daughter of Sheila Jackson Lee, a Democrat who represented the district in Congress for nearly 30 years before her death in July 2024. Lee Carter briefly held the seat in 2024 before Turner took office. She was not a candidate in the special election.

As of Jan. 11, Minifie had spent about $1.8 million on his campaign, compared to about $1.5 million for Edwards. He had about $389,000 in the bank, while Edwards had about $281,000.

Nearly 300 miles away in Tarrant County, voters in state Senate District 9 will elect a replacement for Republican Kelly Hancock, who leaves office in 2025 to become acting state comptroller.

Democrat Taylor Rahmat was the top vote-getter in the Nov. 4 special election with 48% of the vote, short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Republican Lee Wambsgans came in second place with about 36% of the vote, followed by Republican John Huffman with about 16%.

Donald Trump won the county in 2024 with about 58% of the vote.

The winner will serve out the remainder of Hancock’s term, although the Senate is not scheduled to meet again until 2027. Republicans hold an 18-11 majority, with two vacant seats previously held by Republicans.

The Associated Press does not provide projections, and will declare a winner only when it is determined that no scenario exists that would allow the late nominees to close the gap. If the race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or announcements of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet announced a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Texas are done automatically only in the event of a tie. The losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than 10% of the total votes or if fewer than 1,000 votes are cast. A recount of the results of the electronic voting system can be requested, regardless of the voting margin. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

When do the polls close?

Polls close at 7pm CST, which is 8pm EST.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will present voting results and announce the winners of the special runoff elections for the 18th Congressional District as well as in the state’s 9th Senate District.

Who is entitled to vote?

Registered voters in the 18th Congressional District or the state’s 9th Senate District may participate in the special runoff elections in their district.

What does turnout and advance voting look like?

There were about 381,000 registered voters in the 18th District in the 2025 special election. About 76,000 people, or about 20% of registered voters, voted in that election. Just over half of voters (51%) voted early or by absentee ballot.

As of Tuesday, nearly 14,000 votes had been cast in the 18th Congressional District and about 45,000 in the state’s 9th Senate District.

How long does it usually take to count votes?

In the special congressional election held on November 4, the AP first announced the results at 8:18 p.m. EST. Tonight’s voting was last updated at 2:09 AM EST with over 99% of the total votes counted.

When are early and absentee ballots issued?

In both Harris and Tarrant counties, the first voting update of the night typically includes all or nearly all of the early voting and absentee voting results. But in Saturday’s special congressional runoff, a large portion of Harris County’s early voting results won’t be available until a week after the election. Early voting in the county has been extended for two additional days after some early voting sites were closed due to inclement weather. Votes cast on these additional days will be treated as provisional ballots and will be reviewed and scheduled for release on February 6.

In November, Menefee led Edwards among early voters, 33% to 25%. These votes represented approximately 48% of the total special election votes. Edwards barely edged Menefee among Election Day voters, 26% to 25%. Election Day votes represented about 49% of the total votes.