What to expect in the Texas primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — A hotly contested U.S. Senate primary in Texas will help kick off the 2026 midterm election cycle officially on Tuesday, when voters in three states choose candidates to compete in November’s general election.

Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats face a tough road to regain the chamber in 2026, but they hope the right mix of primary results in Texas will help put the state in the running in the midterm year when the president’s party typically loses seats in Congress.

He watches: What’s at stake for Democrats and Republicans in the Texas Senate primary

Voters in the Lone Star State will also choose candidates for a full slate of state offices, from governor to the state Legislature. Arkansas and North Carolina also hold primaries on Tuesday.

Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn sought renomination in his previous four campaigns for U.S. Senate, but this year he faced a tough challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt and five others. Only two sitting U.S. Senators from Texas have lost primaries in the past 100 years.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico are vying for the Democratic nomination. The third Democratic contender, Ahmed Hassan, is a repeat candidate in both Texas and Minnesota.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appears during a rally for his Senate campaign at the George Banquet Hall in Waco, Texas, on March 2, 2026. Photo by Kylie Greenlee/Reuters

In the race for governor, Greg Abbott faces 10 Republican challengers as he seeks a fourth term. The Democratic field includes former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa and six other active candidates.

Read more: The Texas Senate primary race between Crockett and Talarico escalated after Colbert’s interview was withdrawn

In a later phase of the ballot, US House candidates will compete in new congressional districts redrawn by Republicans at the request of President Donald Trump as part of an effort to maintain control of the chamber.

A rally for Rep. Jasmine Crockett with the Texas Organizing Project at Social Spot in San Antonio, on February 22, 2026. Photo by Kylie Greenlee/Reuters

There is no guarantee that the new map will have the impact its designers intended, but the impact on some Democrats is immediate. U.S. Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green will face each other and two others in the redrawn 18th Congressional District. In the new 33rd Congressional District, Democratic US Representative Julie Johnson faces former US Representative Colin Allred and two others in the primary elections.

Read more: Republican Ken Paxton of Texas is intensifying his Senate bid against Cornyn

Republican incumbents at risk include Reps. Dan Crenshaw and Tony Gonzalez, who face strong primary challenges in the 2nd and 23rd Congressional districts, respectively. Gonzalez has faced calls to resign from her Republican colleagues over allegations of an affair with a former employee who committed suicide.

The winners of the Texas primary must receive a majority of votes to avoid a runoff on May 26.

Democratic US Senate candidate for Texas, James Tallarico, attends a campaign rally during his “Take Back Texas” tour in El Paso on February 21, 2026. Photo by Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

Texas Democrats typically face an uphill climb in general elections. Democrats have not won statewide offices in Texas, from governor to railroad commissioner, since 1994. No Texas Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race since 1988. Lyndon Johnson was the last Democrat to hold Cornyn’s seat.

He watches: What the Texas primaries could reveal about the midterms

Harris County, home to Houston, is by far the most populous in the state and plays a major role in both the Republican and Democratic primaries. Dallas and Travis counties, while still influential in Republican primaries, tend to contribute a larger share of the total vote in Democratic contests. Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth, tends to play a larger role in the Republican primary.

In the Republican Senate primary, since much of the campaign has focused on Cornyn’s conservative bona fide in the Trump era, the districts where the president has the most support could play a crucial role. Although many of the counties Trump won in 2024 with 80% or more of the vote are rural and sparsely populated, they collectively accounted for about a fifth of the votes in the state’s previous GOP primaries. Both Cornyn and Paxton received supermajorities in major Trump counties in their last primaries, but Cornyn performed worse there than in the rest of the state, while Paxton performed better.

In the Democratic primary, key areas to watch include counties with large Hispanic populations along the border, especially El Paso and Hidalgo counties, and those with large African-American populations, including those in East Texas, which is part of a region across the South often called the Black Belt.

The Associated Press does not provide projections, and will declare a winner only when it is determined that no scenario exists that would allow the trailing candidate to close the gap. If the race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or announcements of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet announced a winner and explain why.

Texas requires an automatic recount only in the event of a tie. Losing candidates may request and pay for a recount if the margin is less than 10% of the leading candidate’s votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is so large that a recount or legal challenge cannot change the outcome.

Here are some key facts about the election and data points that AP’s decision-making team will be monitoring as the votes are counted.

When do the polls close?

Statewide polls close at 7 p.m. local time, but the state is divided into two time zones. Polls in most parts of Texas close at 8 PM ET, while polls in the western part of the state close at 9 PM ET. Although a significant amount of voting results from most parts of the state will be released between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET, the AP will not conduct any racial breakdowns in the statewide contests until the last polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will present the voting results and announce the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner, State Supreme Court and Court of Appeals, State Board of Education and both chambers of the State Legislature.

Who is entitled to vote?

Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary election. Voter registration in Texas is not by party, but a vote in a party’s primary branches is a voter of that party, which is then used to determine voting eligibility in the May runoff election.

What does turnout and advance voting look like?

As of the November 2025 general election, there were about 18.5 million registered voters in Texas.

Nearly 2 million voters participated in the 2022 Republican primary and nearly 1.1 million in the Democratic primary. About 53% of Republican primary votes and about 58% of Democratic primary votes were cast before primary day.

In this year’s election, nearly 1,177,000 Democratic primary ballots and more than 1,009,000 Republican primary ballots have already been cast as of Thursday.

How long does the vote counting process usually take?

In the 2024 U.S. Senate primary, the AP first announced results at 8:09 p.m. ET, or nine minutes after polls closed in most of the state. Voting last updated tonight in the Democratic Primary was at 4:41 AM ET with about 96% of the total votes counted and at 5:46 AM ET in the Republican Primary with about 98% of the total votes counted.

When are early and absentee ballots issued?

In past elections, counties tended to publish all or most early voting and absentee voting results in the first voting update of the night, before publishing any in-person results on Election Day.

Are we there yet?

Starting Tuesday, there will be 84 days until a primary runoff election, if necessary, and 245 days until the 2026 midterm elections.