What to watch in the subsequent Texas Senate primaries

NEW YORK (AP) — The 2026 midterm season begins in earnest Tuesday with two of the nation’s most consequential Senate primaries taking place in Texas, a political giant that Democrats have fought to overturn for decades.

Is this the year? Republican leaders in Washington are openly concerned that controversial conservative Ken Paxton’s victory over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn will give Democrats a rare chance to win the seat in November. The contest has already cost Republicans tens of millions of dollars, and more will be spent before the May 26 runoff if no one gets 50% in a three-way primary that also includes Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Meanwhile, Democrats are choosing between two rising stars with conflicting styles. There’s U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who made a name for herself through confrontation, and state Rep. James Talarico, a former middle school teacher pursuing a degree in theology.

Primary elections are also being held in North Carolina and Arkansas. The vote comes just days after President Donald Trump launched a major military campaign against Iran, injecting an urgent foreign policy element into races focused on domestic issues.

Here’s what to watch for Tuesday.

Is the Texas Democrats’ threat real this time?

Democrats have been raising the possibility of unrest in Texas for decades. However, the party has not won a Senate race there since Lloyd Bentsen’s re-election in 1988.

Both sides believe this may be the year things change. But a lot depends on Tuesday’s results.

Some Republican leaders in Washington, including key Trump allies, warn that a victory for Paxton, who has well-documented personal baggage, would undermine their chances in November. If he is the nominee, the party will need to transfer tens of millions of dollars from other states to protect the seat.

Paxton could finish first on Tuesday, though he is not expected to get the 50% needed to avoid a May 26 runoff election against the second-place finisher. For now, Cornyn is likely to adopt that position, while Hunt has made an aggressive argument as well.

The runoff could get even uglier for a party that has already spent more than $100 million on the nomination battle, making it the costliest primary in the state’s history.

What kind of fighter do Democrats want?

Democrats have a difficult choice to make when deciding what kind of fighter they want to be against the Republican Party to which Trump belongs.

Republicans privately say they are very concerned about Tallarico. The 36-year-old Democrat blends progressive politics with biblical fluency in a way uncommon among many national Democratic figures.

Talarico denounces “politics as a blood sport” and says people want “a return to more timeless values ​​of sincerity, honesty, compassion and respect.”

He watches: What’s at stake for Democrats and Republicans in the Texas Senate primary

On the other side is 44-year-old Crockett, a former civil rights lawyer who has clashed with Republicans and drawn jibes from Trump. One of its ads boasts that it “drives the president crazy.” Another bears the slogan “Crockett fights for us.”

Former Vice President Kamala Harris supported Crockett in a recorded call that went out across the state over the weekend.

“Texas has the opportunity to send a fighter like Jasmine Crockett to the U.S. Senate,” Harris said.

Does the war with Iran change anything?

The primaries come just three days after the United States, in coordination with Israel, launched a major attack against Iran. Trump indicated that the military campaign could take at least four weeks. At least six American soldiers have already been killed and the president expects more deaths.

Foreign policy rarely shapes American elections, though the timing of the conflict could certainly help shift voters’ attention in a primary that has largely focused on issues at home. Texas, after all, is home to many military families.

Republican candidates overwhelmingly sided with Trump and his “America First” movement. The president’s aggressive interventions abroad could complicate this message and force his allies to answer difficult questions.

So far, Cornyn and Paxton have been quick to line up behind Trump. “I hope lives are not lost needlessly, but that always comes with risks,” Cornyn said Saturday.

What’s at stake for Trump?

The president sits at the center of Tuesday’s contests whether he is on the ballot or not.

Trump visited Texas on Friday and hinted at a possible endorsement in the Senate race. But on the eve of the primaries, he didn’t have to choose yet.

All of the Republican candidates have worked to convince voters that they are aligned with Trump, who remains very popular among primary voters. Former Trump campaign chairman Chris LaCivita is also on Cornyn’s payroll.

Trump is playing a starring role in the Democratic primaries as well, where Crockett, much more than Talarico, has been successful in cultivating a national brand based on her fierce opposition to Trump.

Depending on Tuesday’s results, Texas may play a prominent role in the balance of power in Congress during the last two years of Trump’s term. He certainly doesn’t want to be known as the Republican president who presided over a blue shift in Texas.

Don’t sleep in North Carolina

Texas may dominate the chattering class, but North Carolina may be just as important — if not more so — to the Senate lineup in November.

Even before Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced his retirement last June, North Carolina offered Democrats one of the few opportunities to flip a Republican-controlled seat in a tough electoral map.

Former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper is the dominant figure in the six-person Democratic field. The most prominent name in the Republican arena is Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee who enjoys Trump’s support.

A more competitive primary is expected in North Carolina’s 4th District, where incumbent Rep. Valerie Fauci, 69, faces progressive Nidaa Allam, 32, who has received the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders, among other progressives.

Alam, a county commissioner and the first Muslim woman elected to public office in North Carolina, is campaigning on a “brighter future” message.