What we know so far about Trump’s trip to Asia

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is expected to leave for Asia at the end of the week, betting that a trip around the world will help him solve big cases he can’t get wrong.

Nothing less is at stake than the future of the global economy, which could hinge on whether Trump is able to calm trade tensions during an expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Any mistake could send shockwaves through American industries already rocked by Trump’s aggressive tariffs, government layoffs, and political brinksmanship.

Read more: Trump signs rare earths deal with Australian Prime Minister as a way to confront China

Trump’s strategy of improvisation has had both successes and failures since his return to office in January. Hamas returns hostages to Israel but Middle East ceasefire remains fragile; The trade war with China has witnessed ebbs and flows this year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not slowed down despite Trump’s efforts to resolve the conflict.

There has been some uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trip, with no official announcements from the White House about much of his itinerary. The president said Monday that he plans to go to Malaysia, which is hosting a regional summit, and then Japan, where he is trying to attract foreign investment.

He will also visit South Korea, where he is working on more trade issues and is expected to sit down with Xi. Beijing has not yet confirmed they will meet, and the two leaders recently exchanged threats to impose tariffs and export restrictions.

“I have a very good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. He has offered to lower tariffs but “they have to give us some things too,” including buying U.S. soybeans, limiting the flow of fentanyl components and ending restrictions on rare earth minerals that are critical to high-tech manufacturing.

Trump expressed more confidence on Monday, saying, “I think we’re going to end up with a great deal with China” and “It’s going to be great for the whole world.”

This will be Trump’s first trip to Asia in his second term

With just days to go before Trump departs, there is an unusual level of uncertainty even for a president who likes to keep people guessing about his next move.

“The whole journey seemed uncertain from the beginning,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.

Read more: China refuses to give in to Trump’s threat to impose tariffs

It is Trump’s first trip to Asia since returning to office. Although he hosted leaders from the region at the White House, he did not create the kind of foundational relationships that he enjoyed on other continents.

Anna Kelly, the president’s spokeswoman, responded to a list of questions about Trump’s plans by saying he “will participate in meetings and events in Asia that will lead to many great deals for our country.” She added: “Stay tuned!”

Trump’s approach to Asia focuses on using tariffs to realign what he describes as unfair trade practices, worrying countries that rely on the United States as the world’s largest export market. There is also concern about Trump’s meeting with Xi, and the possibility that the rift between the two leaders could throw the international economy into disarray.

“There will be some appreciation for the fact that he was there, but I don’t think it will be enough to allay the suspicions in the area,” Glaser predicted.

The Republican president has trimmed the size of his foreign policy team since his first term, eschewing the typical group of advisers on the National Security Council in favor of a core group of loyalists.

“There are not too many White House staff to do this kind of work,” said Rush Doshi, who worked on China policy under President Joe Biden. “All of this puts us in uncharted waters.”

Michael Green, who served on President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now heads the Center for the Study of the United States in Sydney, Australia, said there has been no clear strategy for Asia from Trump.

“Everyone is waiting to see where this all goes,” he said.

Others say Trump’s approach is paying off. Anthony Kim, a research fellow in international economic affairs at the Heritage Foundation, said Japan and South Korea are keen to work with the administration to strengthen partnerships.

The message they sent was, “Let’s sit down and talk about the relevant details to reach an agreement,” Kim said.

Trump’s plans remain in flux as the trip approaches

Malaysia hosts the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an annual summit that Trump attended only once during his first term, even skipping it when it was held virtually during the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, this year’s summit provides an opportunity to highlight Trump’s peacemaking efforts, which he has made central to his foreign policy agenda.

Thailand and Cambodia clashed along their disputed border over the summer, and Trump threatened to block trade deals with each country if they did not stop fighting.

“They were willing to meet and talk to avoid further economic pain,” said Ja Ian Chung, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

Malaysia and the United States are working to secure an expanded ceasefire. The Malaysian Foreign Minister said that Trump was “looking forward” to signing an agreement at the summit.

Trump’s next stop is Japan. Washington and Tokyo reached a trade agreement earlier this year, which included a promise of $550 billion in investments in American projects.

Japan is going through a political transition, as Sanae Takaishi was elected on Tuesday to be the country’s first female prime minister.

Takaishi is a disciple of Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister who was assassinated after leaving office. Trump was close to Abe during his first term, and Green said Takaishi “has the potential to play that role as well.”

Working with Trump and keeping him committed to US alliances “requires a level of engagement and trust that none of the Asian leaders have,” Green said.

South Korea is Trump’s last stop on his tour

The culmination of the president’s trip is likely to be in South Korea, which is hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit this year. Trump said he would sit down with Xi while he was there.

Tensions have increased in recent weeks, especially with China announcing restrictions on exports of rare earth metals. Trump has threatened to retaliate with tariffs so high that he admits they would be unsustainable.

Doshi, a former Biden adviser, said there were three possible outcomes of Trump’s meeting with Xi – “deal, no deal, or disaster.” He said China has become bolder after Trump backed down from an earlier tariff announcement when Beijing restricted the export of rare earth magnets.

“The Chinese feel they have President Trump’s number,” Doshi said. “They feel that if they press this, it will back down.”

Trump said on Monday that China has “treated us with great respect” since he took office. “I can threaten them with many other things,” he said, but “I want to be good to China.”

Another open question is Trump’s trade negotiations with South Korea, which faces US tariffs that could undermine its auto industry. However, Seoul rejected Trump’s request to create a $350 billion investment fund similar to that in Japan.

“There is some momentum in the talks,” said Wendy Cutler, who spent more than two decades as a US trade negotiator and is now senior vice president of the Asia Society. “But I don’t want to overdo it, because there are some fundamental differences around this fund that need to be resolved.”

She said it is not unusual for talks to reach the end, but this time “there are a lot of balls in the air.”

Associated Press writer Josh Bock contributed to this report.