What’s next in the national redistricting battle after California approved a new map for the U.S. House of Representatives

The new congressional map approved by California voters marks a victory for Democrats in the national redistricting battle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. But Republicans are still ahead in the fight.

Live results: California 2025 election on Proposition 50

The unusual mid-decade redistricting battle began this summer when President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to reshape their voting districts to try to help the GOP retain control of the House in next year’s elections. Democrats need only three seats to win the chamber and block Trump’s agenda.

Texas responded first with a new U.S. House map aimed at helping Republicans win up to five additional seats. Proposition 50, which California voters supported on Tuesday, creates up to five additional seats that Democrats can win.

What is the outcome in the redistricting battle?

If the 2026 election goes according to redistricting projections, Democrats in California and Republicans in Texas could cancel out each other’s gains.

But Republicans could still hold a four-seat lead in the redistricting battle. New districts approved in Missouri and North Carolina could help Republicans win one additional seat in each state. A new map for the US House of Representatives, approved last week in Ohio, enhances Republicans’ chances of winning two additional seats.

There are still some major uncertainties. Many Ohio districts are so hotly contested that Democrats believe they, too, have a chance to win.

Lawsuits are still ongoing in Missouri and North Carolina. Missouri’s redistricting law faces a referendum petition, which, if successful, would put the new map on hold until it is put to a statewide vote.

What’s next in California?

Legal challenges posed by Republicans against California’s new districts, which enforce boundaries drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature rather than those adopted after the 2020 census by an independent Citizens Commission, are likely to continue.

Read more: California approves the new congressional map supported by Democrats

But candidates cannot wait to intensify election campaigns in new areas.

Although Democrats could win as many as 48 of California’s 52 U.S. House seats, many districts are closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters.

“It’s possible that some Democratic areas will vote blue, but I wouldn’t call them locks,” said J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “You can still run some expensive races,” Coleman added.

He watches: California’s redistricting battle is getting costly and deeply divisive

Next: Indiana?

Republicans who control the Legislature chose not to hold a special session on redistricting on Monday, after Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun called for one. But efforts to collect enough votes continue. Lawmakers now plan to consider redistricting during a rare regular session in December.

Republicans currently hold seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats, and may try to pick up one or two more seats through redistricting.

Republican lawmakers in Kansas have been collecting signatures from their colleagues to call themselves into a special session to try to draw an additional Republican-leaning congressional district. But some lawmakers remained hesitant, and House Speaker Dan Hawkins ended the effort on Tuesday.

The redistricting issue could still come up during Kansas’ regular legislative session, which begins Jan. 12.

Could more Democrats join in on gerrymandering?

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said he hopes approving redistricting in California will have a “chilling effect on Republicans who are trying to do this across the country.” “But if Republicans continue to do this, we will reciprocate every step of the way,” Martin said.

On Tuesday, Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore announced a congressional redistricting commission, though the Democratic Senate president said his chamber would not move forward with redistricting over concerns that efforts to pick up another Democratic seat might backfire.

National Democrats also want Illinois lawmakers to redistrict for an additional House seat. But lawmakers have resisted it so far, citing concerns about the impact on the representation of black residents.

Virginia’s Democratic-led Legislature recently approved a proposed constitutional amendment allowing redistricting mid-decade. But it needs another round of legislative approval early next year before it goes before voters. Democrats currently hold six of Virginia’s 11 U.S. House seats, and may try to gain two or three more through redistricting, though a specific plan has not been released.

Does all this remapping matter?

Over the past 90 years, when the president’s party has held a majority in the House of Representatives, that party has lost an average of more than 30 seats in midterm elections. No amount of Republican redistricting this year can make up for a loss of this magnitude. But the 2026 elections may not be average.

Those past swings were so large, in part because the president’s party often had large majorities in the House, which meant that the most competitive seats were at risk.

Republicans’ current slim majority closely resembles the GOP’s margins during the 2002 midterms under President George W. Bush and the Democrats’ margins during the 2022 midterms under President Joe Biden. Republicans gained eight seats in 2002, when Bush was widely popular after the 2001 terrorist attacks. Democrats lost nine seats in 2022, when Biden’s approval rating was well below 50%, as is the case with Trump today.

If the swing next year is similarly small, gaining just six to 10 seats through redistricting could make a difference in which party wins the House.

“Because we have this small numerical piece separating a Democratic majority from a Republican majority, the stakes are incredibly high — even in one state that is considering redrawing its districts,” said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College.

What does this mean for the coming years?

The battle to redraw voting districts in Congress for partisan advantage is unlikely to end with the 2026 election.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, which supports GOP candidates in state legislative races, warned in a recent memo that “the redistricting arms race has escalated into a battle every cycle” — and is no longer centered around every decennial census.

Democratic lawmakers in New York are seeking a proposed constitutional amendment that could allow redistricting before the 2028 election. Several states currently under divided partisan control could seek congressional redistricting before 2028 if next year’s elections shift the balance of power so that one party controls both the legislature and the governor’s office.

“It is important to recognize that the fight for redistricting in 2027 — and the U.S. House of Representatives in 2028 — has already begun,” RSLC President Edith Jorge Toñón wrote.

Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri. Associated Press writers John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas; Mark Levy in Lancaster, Pennsylvania; Brian Witt in Annapolis, Maryland, contributed.