Who will win the lockdown blame game? Here’s what the new AP-NORC poll shows

WASHINGTON (AP) — As the government shutdown continues with no end in sight, a new AP-NORC poll finds that most Americans see it as a big problem — and all the major players are to blame.

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress bear “a great deal” or “a great deal” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. At least three-quarters of Americans believe that each of them deserves at least a “moderate” share of the blame, demonstrating that no one succeeds in evading responsibility.

He watches: Federal workers describe how the shutdown changed their jobs and daily lives

The poll, conducted as the lockdown continues into its third week, comes as leaders warn it could soon become the longest in history. Democrats are demanding an extension of tax breaks that have helped millions of people afford health insurance since the outbreak of the Corona virus pandemic, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until Congress passes a financing bill to reopen the government.

The confrontation turned into a battle of messages, with each side betting that the public would blame the other. The stakes are especially high for Democrats, who are now out of power and looking for a unified caucus fight before pivotal 2026 midterm elections.

A little more popular frustration appears to be targeting the ruling party. The poll found that about half of Americans say Trump bears a “great deal” of responsibility for the shutdown, the largest amount of responsibility given in the poll. That’s roughly the same percentage who blame Republicans in Congress, but higher than the 40% who say the same about Democrats.

Sophia Cole, a 38-year-old Republican mother from St. Louis, blamed Trump and Congress equally for the shutdown. Cole, who described herself as a Trump supporter, said the two sides “should be able to come together” to reach a compromise, but she believes it is ultimately the Republican president’s responsibility to broker a deal.

“We’re counting on him to get the House and everyone to vote the way he wants them to vote,” Cole said.

Democrats and independents more likely to call shutdown a ‘major issue’

The effects of the lockdown are starting to be felt across the country. Flights have been delayed, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees who have been furloughed or working without pay have begun to miss paychecks.

The poll found that 54% of US adults describe the shutdown as a “major issue,” while only 11% say it is “not a problem at all.” Democrats, 69%, are most likely to see it as a major problem, but 59% of independents and 37% of Republicans feel the same way.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Los Angeles, said this week that the country is “heading toward one of the longest lockdowns in American history.” The most recent shutdown, during Trump’s first term, lasted a record 35 days, and sparked similar public sentiment, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to see it as a major problem.

The White House warned that the impact of the closure could be worse this time. While nearly 2 million service members were paid on time this week, the administration has used the federal workforce as leverage, and last weekend began following through on threats to lay off federal workers. But on Wednesday, a federal judge in California temporarily halted the dismissals, saying they appeared to be politically motivated and carried out without much thought.

“Things will continue to get worse for federal employees,” said Angie Santiago, a 60-year-old Democrat from Miami. “If people like me are suffering, I can’t imagine what federal employees are going through.”

Santiago, who is on disability while her husband works, said she fears the lockdown will exacerbate economic hardship across the country. Santiago said during a phone interview that she started going regularly to food banks about a year ago.

“I’m calling you from the food line,” she said. “You’ll see more of these lines popping up. It’s going to get worse.”

More support than opposition to extending health care subsidies

At the heart of the shutdown is a quandary over federal tax credits for people who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace. Democrats want to extend the appropriations, while Republicans say they will not discuss the issue until the government reopens.

The poll shows that nearly 4 in 10 American adults support extending the tax breaks, while about 1 in 10 directly oppose it. A large share, 42%, have no opinion, suggesting that many Americans are not closely following the underlying conflict that led to the shutdown.

Jason Beck, a Republican who works as a self-employed insurance agent in Utah, uses the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace for his insurance and supports extending the tax credits.

“I know a lot of the shutdowns are related to health insurance, and I would rather keep them the same way they are now,” Beck said of the subsidies.

Democrats say keeping health insurance prices the same is key to their fight and that prices will rise dramatically if Congress doesn’t do anything. But even Beck, who sides with Democrats on benefits, still places blame equally on Democrats, Republicans and Trump for the shutdown.

“Trump blames Democrats, and Democrats blame Republicans,” Beck said. “We are stuck because there is no longer a middle ground.”

Neither party sees a significant increase in preference

Both parties have framed the shutdown as a prelude to the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats aim to flip the House. But so far, there does not appear to be a tangible change in opinions on either party.

About 3 in 10 American adults have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Democratic Party, in line with a September AP-NORC poll. Four in 10 have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Republican Party, similar to last month.

Meanwhile, confidence in Congress remains very low. Only about 4% of Americans say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the way Congress is run, while 43% have only “some” confidence, and about half have “hardly any” confidence.

But the poll suggests that health care could be a useful issue for Democrats in the future. The poll found that 38% of Americans trust Democrats to do a better job on health care, while only 25% have more confidence in Republicans. About 1 in 10 trust both equally, and 25% trust neither.

Rob Redding, a 49-year-old independent voter from New York, supports expanding support for the ACA and credits Democrats with defending it.

Redding said Democrats holding the line on Affordable Care Act subsidies is perhaps one of the bravest and bravest things he’s ever seen them do.

“And I think this is the right decision,” Redding said.

The AP-NORC poll of 1,289 adults was conducted Oct. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.