Why did Trump’s remark about discussing Taiwan arms sales with China raise concerns?

US President Donald Trump’s comment that he is discussing possible arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping has raised concerns in Taipei, where the democratic island nation relies on US support in the face of China’s territorial claims.

Trump told reporters on Monday that he was discussing potential sales with the Chinese leader, an unexpected statement that experts say could violate decades-old foreign policy principles that define the US relationship with self-ruled Taiwan.

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“I’m talking to him about it,” Trump said when asked about Xi’s opposition to arms sales. “We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a decision very soon.” He added that he has a “very good relationship with President Xi.”

His comments sparked debate among some experts and politicians over whether this indicates a possible change in US policy toward Taiwan ahead of Trump’s scheduled visit to China in April. Here is some context:

“A dangerous precedent”?

William Yang, a senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Trump’s consultation with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan could violate the so-called Six Guarantees, a set of non-binding US policy principles drafted in 1982 under President Ronald Reagan that helped guide the US relationship with Taipei.

The second of the six guarantees states that the United States “has not agreed to consult with the People’s Republic of China regarding arms sales to Taiwan.”

“This has basically been carried out by several US presidents after Ronald Reagan to justify and continue arms sales to Taiwan without actually discussing the issue with China over the past few decades,” Yang said.

He added that Trump may be creating a “dangerous precedent” that would allow Beijing to make demands regarding US arms sales to Taiwan.

The Taiwan government, which celebrates the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, did not respond to Trump’s comments.

China has condemned record US arms sales to Taiwan

The tensions are rooted in China’s claims over Taiwan, which China says it needs to annex by force if necessary. Beijing prevents any country with which it maintains diplomatic relations from establishing official relations with Taipei and regularly sends warships and military aircraft near the island.

Although it has no official relations with Taiwan, the United States is the island’s largest supporter and unofficial arms supplier. It is obligated under domestic law to provide Taiwan with sufficient equipment to deter any armed attack from the mainland.

In December, the Trump administration announced a record arms sales package to Taiwan worth more than $11 billion.

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China has expressed anger over the agreement, and in a phone call with Trump earlier this month, Xi warned that “the United States should handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan wisely.”

Xi also stressed that “the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-US relations,” according to a statement of the call released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

The Three Pillars of US-Taiwan Relations

Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, said that in the absence of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, US policies towards the self-governing island are based on three pillars.

The first, and only pillar that has been formalized into law, is the Taiwan Relations Act. It was passed by Congress in 1979, the year the United States established formal diplomatic relations with China and severed its ties with Taiwan. The law requires the United States to provide Taiwan with the necessary means to defend itself, with all threats to the island considered a security concern.

Second, the three statements are three sets of statements issued by the US and Chinese governments in the 1970s and 1980s that cover a variety of topics including Taiwan. Through these statements, the United States recognizes the existence of only one China without recognizing Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. The three statements form the basis of American strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, which leaves the United States room to support the island while not violating its diplomatic agreements with China.

Finally, the six guarantees were formulated as a way to reassure Taiwan of continued American support, and it is believed that all US presidents have supported these guarantees since the Reagan era.

Trump’s comments give the impression that China may have a say in the amount of arms sales to Taiwan, said Hou Tiang Bun, an assistant professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

“Even if the United States ultimately agrees to any arms sales deals to Taiwan, it is a worrying development, especially from Taiwan’s perspective, because it appears that it will be a negotiable issue,” Hu said.

Taiwan will feature prominently in Trump’s visit to China

Trump is scheduled to make his first trip to China of his current term in April, and Taiwan is likely to feature prominently during his meetings with Xi, along with issues such as trade and access to advanced technologies.

Yang said uncertainty over whether Trump would address the issue of arms sales to Taiwan during his visit would amplify doubts on the island about whether the United States would intervene in a potential Chinese attack.

“This further increase in suspicion and concern about the United States within Taiwan is exactly what China is aiming for,” he added.

The island’s independence-leaning government, led by President Lai Ching-ti, is already having difficulty securing payment for current US arms sales, with the budget stalled in parliament.

Taiwanese opposition lawmakers said Monday they will review the $40 billion special defense budget once they reconvene after the February 23 recess.

AP journalist Huizhong Wu in Bangkok contributed to this report.