Why do experts say the Iran war underscores the dangers of Trump’s all-out focus on oil?

WASHINGTON (AP) — When President Donald Trump returned to office last year, he launched a campaign to shift the country away from renewable energy, dramatically reversing the climate-friendly policies of his Democratic predecessor to focus instead on oil and other fossil fuels as the answer to his goal of American energy dominance.

But the war in Iran highlights the risks involved in this approach.

With crude oil prices above $100 a barrel and gasoline prices rising toward $4 a gallon, the Republican president’s strategy of blocking clean energy like wind and solar has left Americans with fewer alternative energy sources and thus more vulnerable to supply shocks caused by the war, experts say. The Strait of Hormuz, the main access point for the global oil market, remains effectively closed as Iran targets traffic through it.

He watches: Lawmakers are pressing US intelligence officials over the Iran war as new strikes rattle oil markets

“The biggest short-term losers from the war are American consumers of oil and gas, as energy prices rise,” said Peter Gleick, a climate scientist and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, a nonprofit focused on global water sustainability.

“It turns out that fossil fuels have their own risks to supplies, and the administration has no answers,” added Tyson Slocum, energy director at Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy group.

Slocum said that Trump promised during his election campaign to cut energy bills in half, but he oversaw the rise in electricity bills as demand from data centers increased. “Now we are witnessing a rise in gas prices, and no one knows where it will go,” he said.

‘A small price to pay’

Trump called the conflict “a very small price to pay” after years of terrorism by the Iranian leadership and predicted that oil prices would “drop like a rock” once the war was over. He said Thursday that he knows oil prices will rise and the economy “will go down a little bit” as a result of the war.

He said at an event at the White House with the Japanese Prime Minister: “I thought it would be worse, much worse in fact. It’s not bad. It will be over very soon.”

Read more: Trump points out that rising oil prices are a positive thing after he bragged about falling gas prices last month

Meanwhile, American consumers are already starting to see the effects at gas stations.

The national average price of gasoline jumped to about $3.88 a gallon as of Thursday, according to AAA, after Trump boasted in his State of the Union address last month that gas prices were below $3.

In a pivotal midterm election year where affordability is a major concern for voters, Trump’s energy policies could hurt Republicans as Americans feel the brunt of rising energy costs.

“We’re always concerned when gas prices go up,” said Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina added, “Gas drives the affordability issue.”

Trump is all about fossil fuels

Trump has long been hostile to renewable energy, especially offshore wind, and prioritizes fossil fuels for electricity production. Trump said wind turbines are ugly, expensive and pose a threat to birds and other wildlife. While wind turbines pose a risk to birds, cats are by far the main threat, followed by building collisions, government statistics show. A report from the National Audubon Society found that two-thirds of North American bird species may face extinction due to rising temperatures.

Read more: Some leaders see a strong case for renewable energy as the Iran war shakes markets

In his second term, Trump went all-in on fossil fuels, offering tax breaks and quick permits for oil and gas exploration. At the same time, he has blocked dozens of clean energy projects and canceled billions of dollars in grants to encourage clean energy, which he derides as the “new green scam.” Trump told the United Nations last year that climate change is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated in the world, in my opinion.”

“We have to drill. That’s Trump’s policy on a lot of oil,” he said Monday at the White House.

Trump’s policies represent a complete reversal from those of President Joe Biden, who unleashed a wave of measures aimed at slowing global warming pollution from the energy sector and other industries and encouraging the use of electric cars.

The historic regulation, which was rolled back, would have forced coal-fired power plants to capture smokestack emissions or shut down. Biden and Democrats in Congress also approved nearly $375 billion to boost clean energy, the largest spending to combat climate change by any state ever.

Trump and Republicans in Congress moved quickly to repeal those policies. The president has gone so far as to overturn a long-standing scientific finding that climate change endangers public health and the environment.

“You’re seeing an administration that has quite literally said, by rescinding the risk report, that we shouldn’t worry so much about climate change,” said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Under Trump, US policy is basically saying: “We are the largest oil and gas producer in the world, so why are we buying all this clean energy like electric vehicles and solar panels from China?” Bordoff said on Bloomberg Green’s “Zero.”

“The largest oil supply disruption in history”

Seeking to ease pressure on prices, Trump moved to release millions of barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil shipments already at sea.

Officials are also considering using the US Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is negotiating with countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude to join an alliance to guard the waterway, where about a fifth of the world’s traded oil usually flows.

Despite these efforts, prices remained high.

“We are currently witnessing what is the largest oil supply disruption in history,” said Gregory Brough, senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

Energy prices will likely remain high for the foreseeable future, Bro said at an event sponsored by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. He added: “The Iranian strategy of exerting pressure on the United States will continue, and President Trump will continue to feel the pressure.”

“There are no guarantees in wars”

Energy Minister Chris Wright admitted prices were likely to remain high for weeks, but said the world would face “short-term pain to solve a long-term problem” as the US and Israel try to “get rid of” Iran.

“There are never guarantees in wars,” Wright told ABC News on Sunday. “This is short-term pain to get to a much better place.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that the unrest in the Middle East shows that the “fastest path to energy security” is to accelerate the just transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.

“There are no hikes in sunlight prices and there are no wind bans,” he said.