Why doesn’t a cheap Turkish dinner mean inflation is over?

The controversy over Thanksgiving dinner highlights why inflation is typically measured using broad-based indicators rather than individual prices.

The dispute began last month when Walmart announced the pricing of its Thanksgiving meal deal, which allowed customers to purchase ingredients for an entire holiday dinner for $10 for less than $4 per person, the lowest price since the retailer began offering the package in 2021. (Many items are currently sold out.) That was cheaper per person than in 2024 when the deal fueled eight items for less than $7 each.

President Donald Trump used the deal to show voters that his administration is working to lower the cost of living. Widespread dissatisfaction with inflation during former President Joe Biden’s term in office contributed to Trump’s victory in the 2020 election. However, the tables have now turned, with Democratic politicians criticizing the administration’s economic policies for pushing prices higher.

Both sides have been able to use price tags to make their case, which explains why economists instead use carefully compiled statistics like the Consumer Price Index to get a clear idea of ​​how the costs of living change over time.

Feast or famine

Trump praised Walmart’s price cuts last week, speaking to reporters at a news conference.

“The cost of Thanksgiving this year will be 25% less than the cost of Thanksgiving last year under Sleepy Joe Biden. That’s a big difference,” he said. “25% less on Thanksgiving.”

Trump’s comments sparked a barrage of fact-checks from journalists and economists. An Associated Press article noted that the 2025 meal deal included fewer items and, in some cases, replaced brand selections with discount store brands. In other words, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Trump later criticized an NBC reporter who asked him about the discrepancy, calling the network “fake news.”

The White House found a boost in its food fight on Monday when meal delivery service DoorDash released its own report on food prices showing that the cost of a “breakfast essentials index” of three eggs, a cup of milk, a bagel and an avocado has fallen 14% since March. The White House highlighted the findings in a press release.

However, the report also showed the risks of choosing individual prices. The breakfast index fell just 1.7% in the 12 months to September, rather than the six-month time frame, mainly due to fluctuations in egg prices caused by last year’s bird flu outbreak.

Basket condition

Economists and policymakers typically rely on measures of inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index, when assessing how the cost of living has changed, to cut through the noise of individual prices rising and falling. To calculate the Consumer Price Index, statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics collect thousands of prices each month by calling businesses, searching websites, and visiting stores.

Prices represent a “basket” of goods and services purchased by a typical consumer, and are given different statistical weights according to their importance in household budgets. For example, housing makes up about a third of the CPI because it represents the largest expense most people pay each month.

The overall Consumer Price Index rose 3% over the past year. The CPI for groceries, specifically, rose 2.7% over the year in September. That’s higher than the Fed’s target of 2% inflation but well below the last inflation peak in 2022, when the consumer price index for groceries rose 13.6% in one year.