Why Texas’ redistricting plan isn’t a sure bet

WASHINGTON (AP) — Texas has set the stage for a redistricting battle this year by drawing a new congressional map aimed at boosting Republicans in the midterm elections. Now, with the primaries underway, the party’s hopes hinge on a key question — whether voters who helped elect President Donald Trump two years ago will vote for other Republican candidates when he’s not on the ballot.

He watches: Democratic Rep. Doggett talks about the redistricting battle in Texas and the party’s response to Trump

The new map is supposed to help Republicans gain five seats controlled by Democrats, which is the goal set by Trump. If successful, Democrats will represent only eight of the state’s 38 districts, down from their current 13.

Republicans sought to achieve this goal through a tactic called “fragmentation,” which means spreading Democratic-leaning voters across districts with more Republican-leaning voters. This way, it is difficult for Democrats to accumulate a majority in individual congressional races.

But the math behind it isn’t that simple. Predicting whether some voters lean left or right, or whether they will vote, is complex, and getting it wrong can have consequences.

One common approach is to look at the last general election. The logic is simple: as the most recent expression of voters’ preferences, it presents the most up-to-date image to voters.

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The new map would likely save those five seats to the GOP if Texans vote the same way they did in the 2024 presidential election — that is, Trump voters stick with Republicans and Kamala Harris voters stick with Democrats. Under this assumption, seats such as the new 28th and 34th districts, which are currently represented by Democrats, would flip to Republican control.

But any individual election is also shaped by its broader political environment. Was the ruling party unpopular? How did voters feel about the economy?

In the case of 2024, those answers are “yes” and “bad.” The election was strong for Republicans across the country, especially for Trump. An Associated Press analysis concludes that if voters in 2026 cast ballots the same way they did in the 2024 presidential race, most of those races would not be particularly close. Only four would have margins within 15 percentage points.

However, applying more democratic election results to the new regions makes the picture look more mixed. If voters return to their 2020 presidential preferences, Republicans will have a harder time winning all five seats.

Read more: The battle to redraw the maps of the US House of Representatives is spreading. This is where things are in Missouri and other states

When looking at the 2020 presidential results on the new map instead of 2024, areas along the southern border, which have a high percentage of Hispanic voters, shift from narrow Republican margins to narrow Democratic margins. Other areas, such as areas in and around Dallas, are moving from strongly Republican to more competitive areas, although they still lean Republican. Under 2020 voting patterns, nine districts will have margins within 15 points.

To be clear, some seats — like the Dallas-area seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Mark Veasey, which was expanded to include more Republican-leaning voters — include enough Republican-leaning districts that even a 2020-style vote wouldn’t keep them in the Democratic column.

He watches: How retirements and redistricting could affect the 2026 midterm elections

Instead of seeking re-election in a redder version of his district, Veasey is retiring from Congress.

“The city of Fort Worth does not have Democratic representation,” Vesey said of the new maps.

“It’s going to be sad,” Vesey added. “I feel terrible.”

The question will be whether Trump’s 2024 voters will stick with his party in the midterms. While the country as a whole has shifted to the right in 2024 compared to 2020, some demographic groups have moved more sharply than others. Hispanic voters in particular — who are heavily represented along the border and in many Texas cities — supported Trump at higher rates than they did four years ago.

There are warning signs for this plan, particularly in areas with heavy Hispanic populations: Even as Trump made significant improvements in his margins along the southern border, those voters also returned incumbent Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez to Congress. Both are running again in reconstituted districts.

Ultimately, the success of Texas’ new congressional map hinges on a central uncertainty: whether 2024 represents a permanent political realignment or a high mark of Republican gains among key constituencies. The upcoming primaries won’t answer that question on their own, but they will provide the first clues as to whether the map’s architects are betting right.